• Production Growth: Increased by 2.5% from 779,000 boe/day in 2023 to 797,000 boe/day in 2024.
• Oil Sands Production: Increased by 3% year-over-year to 610,700 boe/day.
• Offshore Production: Increased to 67,000 boe/day despite SeaRose being off-station.
• US Refining Throughput: Increased by nearly 100,000 barrels/day to 556,000 barrels/day, with a utilization rate of 91%.
• Adjusted Funds Flow: Over CAD8 billion in 2024.
• Shareholder Returns: CAD3.2 billion returned through dividends, share repurchases, and redemption of preferred shares.
• Net Debt: Achieved CAD4 billion target in 2024.
• Fourth Quarter Operating Margin: CAD2.3 billion.
• Fourth Quarter Adjusted Funds Flow: Approximately CAD1.6 billion.
• Fourth Quarter Free Funds Flow: About CAD125 million.
• Fourth Quarter Shareholder Returns: Over CAD700 million through dividends, share buybacks, and redemption of Series 3 preferred shares.
• Net Debt at Year-End: CAD4.6 billion, an increase of CAD420 million from the previous quarter.
• Oil Sands Operating Margin: Over CAD2.3 billion in the fourth quarter.
• Downstream Operating Margin: Shortfall of CAD396 million in the fourth quarter.
• US Refining Fourth Quarter Throughput: 562,000 barrels/day, utilization rate of 92%.
• Canadian Refining Throughput: 104,000 barrels/day, utilization rate of 97%.
• 2025 Capital Investment Budget: CAD4.6 to CAD5 billion.
• 2025 Production Guidance: 108,000 to 145,000 boe/day, approximately 3% growth from 2024.
• 2025 Crude Throughput Guidance: 650,000 to 685,000 barrels/day, a 3% increase from 2024.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Signs with PAAS.

Release Date: February 20, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• Cenovus Energy Inc (NYSE:CVE) achieved its best-ever process safety performance in 2024, reducing Tier 1 and Tier 2 process safety events by 44% compared to 2023.
• The company saw a 2.5% increase in upstream production, with Oil Sands segment production growing by about 3% year-over-year.
• Cenovus Energy Inc (NYSE:CVE) successfully completed major turnarounds at key facilities, including Christina Lake and the Lloyd Upgrader, ahead of schedule.
• The company generated over CAD8 billion of adjusted funds flow in 2024 and returned about CAD3.2 billion to shareholders through dividends, share repurchases, and preferred share redemptions.
• Cenovus Energy Inc (NYSE:CVE) achieved its CAD4 billion net debt target in 2024, enabling the payout of 100% of excess free funds flow to shareholders.

Negative Points

• The company's net debt increased to CAD4.6 billion at the end of the year, partly due to a weakened Canadian dollar and inventory build-up.
• Downstream operating margin in the fourth quarter was a shortfall of CAD396 million, impacted by inventory timing losses and turnaround costs.
• Weighted average crack spread in the Downstream segment declined by 45% compared to the third quarter, affecting profitability.
• The company faces challenges in maintaining high utilization rates and market capture in its US Refining segment.
• Cenovus Energy Inc (NYSE:CVE) anticipates a heavy capital investment year in 2025, with CAD4.6 to CAD5 billion planned, raising concerns about potential impacts on free cash flow.

Q & A Highlights

Q: What is the expected US market capture rate for Cenovus's refineries in a normalized environment? A: Jon McKenzie, CEO, stated that in a normalized environment, the US market capture rate should be in the 70% plus range. The fourth quarter was affected by factors like turnaround in Lima and differential narrowing, but improvements are expected over time.

Q: Is there a possibility of accelerating share buybacks given the current stock valuation? A: Kam Sandhar, EVP, Strategy and Corporate Development, mentioned that while the framework for returning 100% of excess free cash flow to shareholders remains unchanged, the company sees an opportunity in buybacks. However, they aim to maintain discipline by not leaning heavily on the balance sheet and staying close to the CAD4 billion net debt target.

Q: What are the ongoing projects in the US Downstream that could improve utilization rates? A: Jon McKenzie, CEO, highlighted several projects, including work on the Lloydminster Upgrader and Lima Refinery, focusing on improving reliability and mechanical availability. Upcoming turnarounds at Toledo will address units like the alky unit and reformer to enhance performance.

Q: How is Cenovus planning to market barrels with the capacity on Trans Mountain and potential tariff impacts? A: Geoff Murray, EVP, Commercial, explained that Trans Mountain runs at capacity, with a 50-50 split of deliveries to Asia and California. Should tariffs be implemented, there would be a shift to maximize volume through Trans Mountain, with increased flow globally rather than to California.

Q: What is the outlook for heavy-light differentials and its impact on Cenovus's business? A: Geoff Murray, EVP, Commercial, noted that the Trans Mountain expansion has led to narrower differentials, benefiting Cenovus. The company expects this trend to persist and is exploring future egress opportunities to maintain favorable differentials.

Q: How committed is Cenovus to reducing capital investment after 2025? A: Jon McKenzie, CEO, emphasized that the current growth capital cycle was necessary due to past underinvestment. However, growth capital is expected to decrease after 2025, leading to increased free cash flow generation and returns to shareholders.

Q: What is the strategy for the conventional business and its expected growth? A: Jon McKenzie, CEO, stated that the conventional business has not seen much investment recently but offers high-return opportunities. The strategy involves investing CAD400 million to offset declines and grow production, focusing on liquids-rich gas.

Q: How will potential tariffs affect Cenovus's capital spending plans for 2025? A: Jon McKenzie, CEO, clarified that tariffs would not impact the 2025 capital spending plans. The company is focused on completing important projects and will monitor price signals to assess any potential impacts.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.