There's been a major selloff in PROG Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PRG) shares in the week since it released its annual report, with the stock down 31% to US$29.39. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$2.5b were in line with what the analysts predicted, PROG Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$4.53 per share, a notable 16% above expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on PROG Holdings after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for PROG Holdings

Following the latest results, PROG Holdings' seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.56b in 2025. This would be a modest 3.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 35% to US$3.16 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.62b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.63 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 12% to US$48.17. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on PROG Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$58.00 and the most bearish at US$40.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that PROG Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 5.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than PROG Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of PROG Holdings' future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for PROG Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for PROG Holdings (1 is significant!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.