It's shaping up to be a tough period for SoundThinking, Inc. (NASDAQ:SSTI), which a week ago released some disappointing full-year results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$102m missing analyst predictions by 3.1%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.72 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for SoundThinking

Following the latest results, SoundThinking's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$111.5m in 2025. This would be a solid 9.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 82% to US$0.13. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$107.8m and losses of US$0.23 per share in 2025. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a considerable decrease in loss per share in particular.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$22.33, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic SoundThinking analyst has a price target of US$30.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$18.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await SoundThinking shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that SoundThinking's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 9.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 20% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that SoundThinking is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$22.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for SoundThinking going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - SoundThinking has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.