Friedrich Merz has emerged victorious in a general election which saw dramatic changes in German politics – but given that his party is responsible for many of the country’s problems, a radical about turn looks unlikely, says Rainer Zitelmann

Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) emerged victorious in Germany’s general election, securing 28.6 per cent of the vote. However, this is a weak result given the failings of the previous Green and Social Democrat-led government (in a three-way coalition with the free-market FDP, which failed to exert any influence). This marks the second worst election result in the history of the Christian Democrats, with only an eight percentage-point lead over the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), which gained 20.8 per cent of the vote. 

Friedrich Merz had promised to cut the AfD’s share of the vote in half. Instead, the party’s support doubled compared to 2021, increasing from 10.4 per cent to 20.8 per cent, while Merz’s party gained just 4.4 percentage points. Merz has paid the price for failing to distance himself sooner and more decisively from the legacy of Angela Merkel, Germany’s Chancellor from 2005 to 2021. In policy terms, Merz has gradually reshaped the Christian Democrats’ stance on a range of issues, particularly migration. 

But every time the CDU/CSU criticised Germany’s migration policy, the AfD was able to reply: “But it was the CDU/CSU who started all this under Merkel in 2015”. The most interesting statistic from election night revealed that, when asked who was responsible for so many immigrants and asylum seekers coming to Germany, 54 per cent of voters blamed the CDU/CSU.

A similar picture emerged on other issues. Merz criticized the closure of nuclear power plants, and the AfD countered: “It was the CDU who decided to phase out nuclear power under Merkel’s leadership”. Similarly, when Merz voiced concerns about the ban on cars with combustion engines, the AfD simply responded: “But wasn’t it the CDU’s Ursula von der Leyen who spearheaded the ban on combustion engines in the EU?”

A new political beginning

In order to effectively signal a new political beginning, Merz should have distanced himself from Merkel’s policies much earlier and more resolutely, and proactively dealt with his party’s past. But Merz was afraid to do so because he knows that his party is divided between moderate conservatives like himself and party members, who are still aligned with the policies of the former chancellor Angela Merkel. Publicly renouncing Merkel’s legacy, while absolutely necessary, would have provoked division within his party. Merz only realised a few weeks before the election that he needed to acknowledge the CDU/CSU’s responsibility for many of the problems facing Germany (migration, energy policy and so on). But by then it was already too late.

Merz also struggled to convincingly explain how he planned to implement the radical changes in migration and economic policy he was promising. After all, he had ruled out a coalition with the AfD and committed himself to the Social Democratic Party (SPD) or the Greens as coalition partners, the very parties responsible for the disastrous migration and economic policies of the past three years.