Asia begins the week with a mixed bag of manufacturing data, showcasing diverse trajectories across the region.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's policy meeting minutes and China's Two Sessions will dominate market attention on Tuesday, followed by Australia's GDP and regional inflation data mid-week.

Central bank decisions in Malaysia and South Korea will also influence market direction, while trade figures from Taiwan and the impact of US tariffs on China will be closely monitored.

The week culminates with China's inflation figures, providing a final perspective on regional demand and economic health.

MONDAY, March 3

Data from S&P Global painted a mixed picture of Asia's manufacturing sector in February. While some economies showed signs of recovery and expansion, others struggled.

Indonesia: Factory activity continued its upward trajectory, with the Manufacturing PMI climbing to 53.6 from 51.9. This marked the third consecutive month of expansion and the fastest pace of growth since March 2024. It was driven by a surge in new orders, output, and employment.

China: Asia's largest economy saw increased factory activity in February, with the Caixin PMI climbing to 50.8 from 50.1, owing to higher output and new orders.

Taiwan: The nation's manufacturing sector likewise expanded as the PMI rose to 51.5 from 51.1.

Thailand: The country's manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery, with the PMI rising above the 50-point threshold to indicate expansion following contraction in the prior month.

Philippines: The Southeast Asian nation recorded weaker factory activity in February compared to January as the PMI dropped to 51 from 52.3.

Malaysia: While the uptick in PMI to 49.7 from 48.7 suggests a slight easing in contraction, the sector has now experienced nine straight months of decline.

Vietnam: The Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.2 from 48.9, indicating the industry remains under pressure.

Meanwhile, official data showed that Indonesia's consumer prices fell 0.09% in February, versus forecasts of a 0.41% rise. It marked the first deflation since March 2000.

Lastly, Hong Kong's retail sales fell 5.2% year-on-year in January, the eleventh consecutive month of decline, but slower than December's revised 11.3% drop.

TUESDAY, March 4

Following the Reserve Bank of Australia's 25 basis point rate reduction in February, the release of the meeting minutes is eagerly anticipated.

The minutes will be analyzed for clues about the RBA board's level of agreement on the cut. As the central bank does not publish voting details, the language within the minutes will be the primary source of insight.

Meanwhile, South Korea's industrial production, retail sales, and manufacturing PMI numbers will be released, alongside Japan's unemployment figures and consumer confidence data.

The focal point of this week is China's Two Sessions, which represent the annual meetings of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the nation's top political advisory body, and the National People's Congress (NPC), its highest legislature.

The CPPCC portion of the Two Sessions starts on Tuesday, with the NPC convening on Wednesday.

The week-long event is anticipated to unveil Beijing's 2025 growth target and specifics regarding a comprehensive stimulus package to stimulate domestic consumption and combat ongoing deflationary trends, The Wall Street Journal reported.

WEDNESDAY, March 5

Australia's economic performance in the final quarter of 2024 will be the highlight on Wednesday.

"Our preliminary estimate for GDP is for a lift of 0.5% in the December quarter. Stronger household consumption in Q4 will be the primary driver of growth," CommBank said in a note.

Analysts at Westpac expect Australia's GDP to have grown by 0.4% QoQ and 1.1% YoY in the last three months of 2024, while NAB projects economic expansion of 0.5% QoQ and 1.2% YoY.

Meanwhile, February inflation numbers from Thailand and the Philippines will be released on Wednesday.

Barclays analysts predict Thailand's inflation will decline in the coming months, driven by a higher base effect, particularly in energy prices.

For the Philippines, both ANZ and Barclays anticipate a February easing of headline inflation compared to January, with falling rice prices contributing to lower food inflation overall.

The final February services and composite PMI prints for Australia and Japan will also be available midweek, alongside Hong Kong and Singapore's private sector activity readings.

THURSDAY, March 6

According to market consensus, Malaysia's central bank will likely maintain lending rates on Thursday. Bank Negara Malaysia is projected to hold its overnight policy rate steady at 3%.

South Korea's inflation figures for February, due Thursday, are expected to remain close to the Bank of Korea's 2% target, potentially paving the way for further monetary easing.

Citigroup economists anticipate a 2.2% year-on-year increase in the consumer price index, consistent with January's figures, amid rising vegetable costs.

Meanwhile, Vietnam will release several February indicators, including trade balance, inflation data, retail sales, industrial output, and tourist arrivals.

In addition, the Philippines will announce its jobless rate for January, and Australia will publish trade numbers.

FRIDAY, March 7

Taiwan will release February inflation and trade data on Friday.

"We expect the consumer price index to cool to around 2.2% YoY after a hotter-than-expected January gain of 2.6% YoY. Also, Taiwan's February trade data is scheduled for Friday afternoon. The Lunar New Year effect may cause a rebound to double-digit growth for YoY trade," ING Bank said in a note.

Friday's trade report from China will be closely watched for the first indications of how US tariffs affect trade flows.

SUNDAY, March 9

This week's economic data releases conclude with China's inflation figures on Sunday.

Economists generally believe that consumer inflation will remain subdued for the foreseeable future, primarily due to persistent weakness in domestic demand.