Shareholders might have noticed that ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADTN) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.5% to US$10.57 in the past week. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$923m, statutory losses exploded to US$5.67 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on ADTRAN Holdings after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for ADTRAN Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ADTRAN Holdings' five analysts is for revenues of US$1.03b in 2025. This reflects a decent 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. ADTRAN Holdings is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.11 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$1.01b and US$0.18 per share in losses. Although we saw no serious change to the revenue outlook, the analysts have definitely increased their earnings estimates, estimating a profit next year, compared to previous forecasts of a loss. So it seems like the consensus has become substantially more bullish on ADTRAN Holdings.

The consensus price target rose 15% to US$13.20, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic ADTRAN Holdings analyst has a price target of US$15.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$9.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ADTRAN Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 19% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.9% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that ADTRAN Holdings is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts now expect ADTRAN Holdings to become profitable next year, compared to previous expectations that it would report a loss. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for ADTRAN Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether ADTRAN Holdings is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.