It's been a pretty great week for Nordex SE (ETR:NDX1) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to €13.05 in the week since its latest yearly results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of €7.3b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 36% to hit €0.04 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Nordex

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Nordex from eleven analysts is for revenues of €7.65b in 2025. If met, it would imply an okay 4.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 1,649% to €0.65. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €7.71b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.68 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at €17.39, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Nordex, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €20.60 and the most bearish at €14.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Nordex's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nordex's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Nordex.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Nordex's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €17.39, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Nordex going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.