J.P. Morgan analyst Matthew R. Boss reiterated the Underweight rating on Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN), raising the price forecast to $167 from $166.

The analyst suggests that while Vail Resorts is well-positioned for the future due to its top-tier resort portfolio, de-risked operating strategy with its Epic Pass options, and a strong customer base of higher-income, avid skiers, four key challenges could impact the business.

These include the normalization of industry trends, leading to a decline in season pass sales to start the year, the saturation of the season pass model, potential resistance to further price increases after three years of 8% hikes, and a shift in customer demographics, Boss writes.

This combination of factors points to potential downside risks in both earnings and the company’s overall valuation.

Also Read: Meta Taps Taiwan Semiconductor To Build AI Chip, Aims To Cut Nvidia Dependence By 2026

In its second-quarter results released yesterday, the company reported quarterly earnings of $6.56 per share, which beat the consensus estimate of $6.34.

Quarterly revenue came in at $1.14 billion, which met the analyst consensus estimate and is an increase over revenue of $1.08 billion from the prior year’s quarter.

Boss notes that local visitation has improved year-over-year in the reported quarter, which aligns with internal expectations, driven by more typical weather patterns, especially on the East Coast.

Meanwhile, destination visitation is facing a shift, with consumers delaying their visits to later in the season, resulting in a mixed headwind that impacts ancillary revenue.

Specifically, local guests are spending less than destination guests, leading to a decline in revenue per skier visit.

Despite these shifts, management has confirmed that destination guest spending remains strong, with no signs of a pullback from consumers thus far, even amid ongoing macroeconomic concerns.

Following the results, the analyst models FY25 EPS of $7.39 and FY26 EPS of $7.87.

Price Action: MTN shares are trading higher by 7.02% to $164.37 at last check Tuesday.

Read Next:

• Nasdaq 100 Trades Below Its 200-Day Moving Average: History Says You Should Buy The Dip Now

Photo via Shutterstock.

Latest Ratings for MTN

View More Analyst Ratings for MTN

View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Up Next: Transform your trading with Benzinga Edge's one-of-a-kind market trade ideas and tools. Click now to access unique insights that can set you ahead in today's competitive market.

Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga?

• VAIL RESORTS (MTN): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article Vail Resorts Faces Several Headwinds Despite Its Portfolio Strength, Analyst Says originally appeared on Benzinga.com

© 2025 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.