Investing.com -- Bernstein analysts believe 2025 and 2026 will be defining years for autonomous vehicles (AVs) as the sector transitions from proof of concept to a viable commercial product in the U.S. 

The firm believes the next two years will determine whether the AV market remains highly consolidated or becomes more competitive, which could have major implications for rideshare companies like Uber (NYSE:UBER) and Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT).

“We believe the emergence of a handful of capable AV tech providers would be enough to fend off the bear case,” Bernstein analysts wrote. 

The structural bear case for rideshare stocks has long been that AV adoption will shift the labor model from a fragmented driver base to a consolidated, winner-take-most AV market. 

Bernstein says if that happens, Uber and Lyft would likely lose negotiating power, potentially lowering their take rates. However, if more AV providers enter the market, competition could prevent that scenario.

Currently, Waymo is the dominant player in U.S. robotaxi services, but the firm feels that could change. 

“2025/26 could see a ramp in competition on the AV front,” Bernstein noted, explaining that Zoox and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) are aiming to roll out commercial services this year, while smaller providers like Avride and May Mobility are also working toward deployment.

“The collapse of Cruise was a good reminder of how quickly things can change and how difficult it can be to assess the viability of disruptive technology from the outside,” Bernstein analysts wrote.

For rideshare stocks, Bernstein says new partnerships with smaller AV companies could be key catalysts. 

“From a stock perspective, we think it’s imperative for Avride and May Mobility to launch in 2025 on UBER and LYFT, respectively,” Bernstein noted, adding that even small-scale partnerships would be valuable proof points for long-term investors.

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