Investors in Universal Music Group N.V. (AMS:UMG) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.0% to close at €25.99 following the release of its full-year results. Revenues were €12b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at €1.13, an impressive 33% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Universal Music Group from 14 analysts is for revenues of €12.5b in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 6.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 27% to €0.83 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €12.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.83 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Universal Music Group

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €29.58. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Universal Music Group at €42.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €15.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Universal Music Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 187 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Universal Music Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Universal Music Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Universal Music Group you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.