US natural gas prices fall 4% on reduced flows to LNG export plants, lower demand forecasts

Reuters
04-04
US natural gas prices fall 4% on reduced flows to LNG export plants, lower demand forecasts

US gas output on track to drop from record high in March

US LNG export feedgas on track to drop from record high in March

US gas inventories on track for rare build in March

By Scott DiSavino

April 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 4% on Friday on a decline in daily liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ exports and forecasts for mild weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

That price decline occurred despite a decline in output so far this month.

Gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17.4 cents, or 4.2%, to $3.964 per million British thermal units at 9:03 a.m. EDT (1303 GMT). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest price since March 19.

For the week, the contract was down about 2.6% after gaining about 2% last week.

Energy traders said mild weather and low demand last month likely allowed utilities to add gas to storage in March for the first time since 2012 and only the second time in history.

Gas stockpiles, however, were still about 3% below normal levels for this time of year after cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to 105.7 billion cubic feet per day so far in April, down from a monthly record 106.2 bcfd in March.

Looking forward, analysts noted the 11% drop in U.S. crude CLc1 futures so far this week could result in less oil drilling in shale basins like the Permian in Texas and New Mexico and Bakken in North Dakota, which could result in lower amounts of gas associated with that oil production.

Oil prices dropped this week on worries U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs could result in lower global economic growth and oil demand, while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, announced plans to keep boosting oil supplies. O/R

Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 19.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 104.0 bcfd this week to 105.9 bcfd next week before dropping to 97.2 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big operating U.S. LNG export plants has fallen to 15.6 bcfd so far in April, down from a monthly record 15.8 bcfd in March.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around a six-month low of $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and held near a three-month low of around $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Apr 4 Forecast

Week ended Mar 28 Actual

Year ago Apr 4

Five-year average

Apr 4

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+47

+29

+16

+17

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

1,820

1,773

2,280

1,870

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

-2.7%

-4.3%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

4.04

4.14

1.79

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.54

12.79

9.11

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.08

13.08

10.06

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

171

181

162

192

184

U.S. GFS CDDs

39

38

25

28

24

U.S. GFS TDDs

210

219

287

220

208

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

106.4

106.2

105.8

101.9

97.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.8

7.8

7.5

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

115.1

114.0

113.3

N/A

105.4

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

3.4

2.9

2.3

N/A

3.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.3

7.3

6.9

N/A

5.4

U.S. LNG Exports

16.1

15.8

15.8

12.6

11.8

U.S. Commercial

10.4

8.7

9.8

9.7

11.8

U.S. Residential

15.1

12.1

14.0

14.1

18.3

U.S. Power Plant

26.0

26.6

25.7

28.8

27.5

U.S. Industrial

23.7

23.2

23.8

23.6

23.8

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.2

3.3

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

82.7

78.0

80.9

83.8

90.1

Total U.S. Demand

108.4

104.0

105.9

N/A

110.6

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

92

90

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

90

90

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

91

90

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Mar 28

Week ended Mar 21

2024

2023

2022

Wind

15

15

11

10

11

Solar

6

7

5

4

3

Hydro

8

7

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

35

35

42

41

38

Coal

16

15

16

17

21

Nuclear

18

19

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

4.21

4.04

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

3.26

3.11

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.94

3.01

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

3.22

3.06

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

3.70

3.65

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

3.40

3.35

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

3.73

3.80

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

2.51

1.84

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.86

1.96

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

37.69

46.25

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

46.48

52.18

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

31.16

31.14

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

19.92

26.00

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

3.88

16.87

text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminalFor graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.htmlFor next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NGFor next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWRFor U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLLFor U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFCFor U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGASFor the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWERTo determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565BNYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))

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