Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. That downside risk was realized by PROS Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PRO) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 48%. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 7.7%. Even if you look out three years, the returns are still disappointing, with the share price down45% in that time. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 21% in a month.
Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.
Because PROS Holdings made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.
PROS Holdings grew its revenue by 8.8% over the last year. While that may seem decent it isn't great considering the company is still making a loss. Given this fairly low revenue growth (and lack of profits), it's not particularly surprising to see the stock down 48% in a year. It's important not to lose sight of the fact that profitless companies must grow. But if you buy a loss making company then you could become a loss making investor.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on PROS Holdings
PROS Holdings shareholders are down 48% for the year, but the market itself is up 7.7%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 6% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with PROS Holdings (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
PROS Holdings is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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