1020 ET - The Bank of Canada drops its usual base-case forecast as presented in the quarterly monetary-policy report, opting this time to highlight two possible scenarios that could emerge depending on what President Trump pursues on tariffs. Governor Tiff Macklem says officials agreed on this approach due to "highly unpredictable" trade policy. In one scenario, tariffs on Canada are eventually dropped as part of negotiations, but the process is unpredicatable. GDP stalls in 2Q but only expands moderately afterward, and CPI falls below 2% for rest of 2025. The second scenario incorporates a prolonged global trade conflict, and Canada would find itself in a recession for a year. Macklem says Canada presently finds itself in the middle of the two scenarios. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 16, 2025 10:20 ET (14:20 GMT)
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