MW AMC to reap the rewards as 'A Minecraft Movie' energizes moviegoers

By James Rogers

The theater chain will see a challenged box-office environment in the first quarter, but the second quarter will be a different story, says one analyst

Movie-theater chain and original meme stock AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. had a tough first quarter, but looks poised to start reaping the benefits of a box-office rebound that appeared to start a week ago, according to Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey.

He said the setup for the second quarter for AMC $(AMC)$ is compelling, as the weekend of April 5 delivered the theater chain's highest-grossing weekend of 2025.

"This strength was driven by the overperformance of 'A Minecraft Movie,' which finished well ahead of expectations and energized consumer turnout," Hickey wrote in a note to clients.

As a result, "we believe Q2 will mark a clear turning point," Hickey added.

The stock tacked on 0.4% in afternoon trading.

However, Hickey said investors will first have to endure a rocky first quarter, with the domestic box office down 11.6% year over year to $1.42 billion. "The quarter lacked breakout titles, and five of the top 10 films were 4Q holdovers, likely contributing to elevated film rental expense and limited new attendance drivers," the analyst added.

AMC is projected to report first-quarter results on or about May 2, with analysts surveyed by FactSet expecting, on average, revenue to decline 4.1% from a year ago to $912.5 million. That compares with the current FactSet consensus for second-quarter revenue growth of 21% to $1.25 billion.

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In February, AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron noted that the first quarter is historically the quietest period of the year, but said the box office was expected to "heat up" in the second quarter, according to a CallStreet transcript.

For the current quarter, Benchmark estimates that the domestic box office will grow 12% year over year on the strength of a more robust movie slate. Wide-release volume for 2025 is on pace to reach around 110 titles, or about 85% of 2019 prepandemic levels, according to Hickey. This, he said, represents "a meaningful increase in content and attendance opportunity."

"As the industry regains momentum, AMC is well positioned to benefit from its strong share of industry box office, enhanced by its growing PLF [Premium Large Format screens] mix and higher per-capita monetization," he added.

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Last year AMC announced its Go Plan, a major investment effort to boost the moviegoing experience at its theaters. The "go on offense" plan includes premium large-format and extra-large-format screens, as well as laser projection, theater renovation and upgraded seating.

In his note, Benchmark's Hickey pointed to the opening weekend of "A Minecraft Movie," where 33% of U.S. Saturday attendance was generated by premium formats, including Imax $(IMAX)$, Dolby Cinema, Prime and RealD 3D. "This validates AMC's strategic focus on high-value formats as a lever for growth," he wrote.

Despite Hickey's upbeat outlook for the current quarter, he reiterated his hold rating on the stock. That makes him part of the majority, as five of the six analysts surveyed by FactSet who cover the stock are neutral, while the other is bearish.

AMC shares are down 27.4% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500 index's SPX decline of 8.3%.

-James Rogers

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April 15, 2025 14:47 ET (18:47 GMT)

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