Analysis: Bitcoin Daily Chart Forms 'Death Cross,' Historically Only Occurred 10 Times

Blockbeats
04-16

BlockBeats News, April 16. On April 6, Bitcoin formed a "Death Cross" on the daily chart—a technical formation where the 50-day Moving Average (MA) crossed below the 200-day Moving Average. Historically, this signal has often been associated with trend reversals and prolonged bearish trading periods, sometimes foreshadowing a significant market decline.

Since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced this kind of "Death Cross" 10 times, with the 11th currently unfolding. Analyzing the dates and durations of these "Death Crosses" leads to an important conclusion: every bear market has included a "Death Cross," but not every "Death Cross" has led to a bear market. This distinction is crucial to understanding the current market environment.

Of these occurrences, the three "Death Crosses" during the bear markets of 2014-2015, 2018, and 2022 were prolonged and painful. They lasted between 9 and 13 months, with price drops ranging from 55% to 68% from the cross to the cycle bottom.

The other seven fluctuations were far less severe. These fluctuations lasted between 1.5 and 3.5 months, with Bitcoin's price dropping from 27% to not at all. In many cases, these signals marked a temporary bottom, followed by new rebounds.

James Butterfill, Research Director at CoinShares, stated that on average, Bitcoin's price is only slightly lower (-3.2%) one month after a Death Cross, typically rising three months later. Therefore, "the so-called Death Cross is actually often a good buying opportunity." (Cointelegraph)

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