Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

THE "WAIT-AND-SEE" ECONOMY: DURABLE GOODS, HOME SALES, JOBLESS CLAIMS

Uncertainty is the word du jour as companies and consumers feel their way through the fog of President Donald Trump's chaotic tariff policy.

New orders for long-lasting, U.S.-made goods USGDN=ECI surged by 9.2% last month, blasting past the expected 2.0% increase and marking an abrupt acceleration over February's downwardly revised 0.9% increase.

But don't get too excited; that was all about airplanes.

Drilling down into the Commerce Department's report - which covers everything from toaster ovens to attack drones - the jumbo-size upside surprise is largely attributable to a 139% increase in commercial aircraft orders. Remove all transportation-related items, and new orders would have been unchanged.

But core capital goods surprised in the other direction. The metric - which excludes aircraft and defense items and is considered a barometer of U.S. corporate capex plans - posted a measly 0.1% gain, weaker than the 0.2% consensus.

"Core orders are poised to decline in the next months as businesses contend with tighter financial conditions, an outsized sticker shock when purchasing equipment, and the uncertainty around tariff policy," writes Bernard Yaros, lead economist at Oxford Economics.

Turning to the housing market, the sales of pre-owned U.S. homes USEHS=ECI dropped by 5.9% in March to 4.02 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), according to the National Association of Realtors $(NAR.UK)$.

That's 2.7% shy of the 4.13 million units SAAR predicted by economists.

A 6.4% drop in single-family homes was responsible for the overall decline.

The number of homes on the market jumped by 8.1%. At March's pace it would take 4.0 months to sell every home on the market, up from 3.5 from January.

"Home buying and selling remained sluggish in March due to the affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates," says Lawrence Yun, NAR's Chief Economist.

It's worth noting that the average 30-year contract rate has risen since March, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Words like "steady" and "resilient" have been aptly applied to the current labor market. Last week, 222,000 U.S. workers joined the queue outside the unemployment office USJOB=ECI, marking a 2.8% weekly increase and hitting the expectations bull's eye.

Initial claims have been low and rangebound, as demonstrated by the unchanged four-week moving average of initial claims.

"Businesses' confidence has tumbled this year, but they are not squeezing labor costs just yet," says Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, though he believes "job losses are coming later this year in sectors most exposed to tariffs, such as retail, transportation and manufacturing, if the current menu of tariffs is maintained."

Ongoing jobless claims USJOBN=ECI, reported on a one-week lag, increased by 2.0% to 1.841 million, or 34,000 fewer than analysts expected.

Continuing claims remain elevated and support recent consumer survey data suggesting laid-off workers are finding it increasingly difficult to find a replacement gig.

(Stephen Culp)

*****

THURSDAY'S OTHER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:

STOCKS HIGHER IN EARLY TRADE AS TECH LEADS - CLICK HERE

HEDGE FUNDS BEHIND EQUITY SELLING, NOT FOREIGN INVESTORS – JPMORGAN - CLICK HERE

SPANISH AND GERMAN STOCKS AMONG EUROPE'S WINNER SO FAR IN 2025 - CLICK HERE

STRONG USD BUYING INTO MONTH END? - CLICK HERE

PRE-CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MAJOR DOLLAR DOWNTREND - DB - CLICK HERE

STOXX GIVES BACK SOME GAINS, LUXURY WEAK - CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES MOSTLY LOWER ON HEAVY EARNINGS DAY - CLICK HERE

DOUR SENTIMENT READINGS THREATEN RELIEF RALLY - CLICK HERE