1326 ET - Economists at Goldman Sachs forecast 4Q GDP will be up just 0.5% from GDP in 4Q 2024 as tariffs and policy uncertainty weigh on the economy. For now, business and consumer surveys have suggested a slowdown, but the evidence hasn't shown up in official economic data yet. Looking back over prior recessions with a clear precipitating event, it usually took about four months for the hard data to weaken, Goldman's team writes. They infer economic indicators will probably start to show a downturn more clearly by mid- to late summer. "The evolution of the data in recent weeks is consistent with previous "event-driven" growth slowdowns," Goldman writes. "Still, it is too early to draw strong conclusions from the limited data we have so far." (matt.grossman@wsj.com, @mattgrossman)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 22, 2025 13:26 ET (17:26 GMT)

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