Citi says odds of recession in US close to 45%, largest effect of tariffs to happen in second half

Reuters

2025/04/22

By Tatiana Bautzer

NEW YORK, April 22 (Reuters) - Citigroup's Chief Economist Nathan Sheets said on Tuesday the U.S. has a 40% to 45% chance of recession as the economy suffers the impact of tariffs imposed by president Donald Trump on China and other trading partners.

Sheets expects GDP to grow in the second quarter, pushed by consumers rushing to make purchases ahead of tariffs coming into effect. The largest impact on U.S. growth is expected during the second half of the year, Sheets told clients in a conference call.

(Reporting by Tatiana Bautzer)

((tatiana.bautzer@tr.com; Mob: +1-646-2397968; Reuters Messaging: tatiana.bautzer.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

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