By Jon Sindreu

If Donald Trump truly de-escalates his trade war, Boeing could be an early winner.

Shares in the plane maker jumped around 6% Wednesday, as investors parsed the news that Washington is considering slashing tariffs on Chinese imports.

On top of that, Boeing reported smaller losses and a less onerous cash burn for the first quarter than Wall Street analysts were forecasting. The company is far from building enough jets to be profitable, but confirmed that it still expects to ramp up production of the 737 MAX to 38 a month by the end of 2025, and plans to ask regulators to increase the monthly rate to 42 later this year.

This came as a relief for investors. Comments by GE Aerospace, RTX and Hexcel this week had suggested that the trade war with China could slow production of American-made jets. Boeing is also paying the new, 10% universal tariff on the components it sources from other countries, particularly aerostructures coming from Japan and Italy.

Aerospace occupies a special place in this trade war: It generates a $75 billion annual trade surplus for the U.S., so domestic manufacturers have a lot to lose from protectionism and almost nothing to gain. But this also reflects that American firms ultimately have the comparative advantage, with China in particular remaining very dependent on U.S. planes and parts. This isn't the case for most complex goods, including smartphones, laptops and chemicals.

Geopolitics are cloudy right now, but Boeing could get visibility sooner than others.

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April 23, 2025 12:45 ET (16:45 GMT)

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