There will be no time for investors to look back and reflect this week as President Donald Trump's second term marks 100 days in office.

Instead, they will be focused on earnings from around a third of the companies in the S&P 500, and key economic data on the labor market and inflation. All while keeping up with the now-familiar, yet unpredictable, twists and turns of U.S. trade policy, particularly when it comes to talks with China.

The S&P 500 has recovered to just 2.6% off its level before Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs on April 2. However, that could change sharply with so much happening in the coming days.

It's hard to know what will take center stage for markets. It could be earnings, which includes reports from four of the Magnificent Seven -- Meta, Microsoft, Amazon.com and Apple. Alphabet delivered a strong start to Big Tech earnings and gave the sector a much-needed boost.

Earnings season hasn't been bad so far, 73% of companies have beaten first-quarter expectations -- slightly below the 75% five-year average, according to FactSet. But given the macroeconomic uncertainty, it's the guidance and commentary around tariffs that's really moving stocks.

Around 60% of companies currently have full-year guidance below Wall Street expectations. But that doesn't tell the full story. It omits the growing number of companies withdrawing full-year guidance altogether -- Delta Air Lines, Skechers, American Airlines, and Logitech to name a few.

Economic data could overshadow corporate updates, though, particularly if Friday's April jobs report starts showing the real-world impact of tariffs. The same goes for the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, core PCE, on Wednesday.

Amid all these market movers, one thing could have an even greater impact on stocks: China. While Beijng has denied trade talks with Washington, even as Trump insisted they're happening, any progress between the two sides can lift stocks regardless of how the week's other big events turn out.

-- Callum Keown

*** Join Barron's senior managing editor Lauren R. Rublin, deputy editor Ben Levisohn, and David Kelly, chief global strategist of J.P. Morgan Asset Management, today at noon when they discuss the outlook for financial markets, industry sectors, and individual stocks. Sign up here.

***

Trump to Mark First 100 Days With Focus on Tariffs, Tax Cuts

As President Donald Trump hits 100 days in office this week, lawmakers will focus on reconciling the House and Senate budget blueprints to make his 2017 tax cuts permanent. Extending the provisions for individuals, estates, and businesses could cost $4.6 trillion, according to a Tax Foundation analysis.

   -- The pivot to preserving the first-term tax cuts comes amid Trump's trade 
      war. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended Trump's trade policy, but 
      said Sunday he didn't know if Trump had spoken directly with Chinese 
      President Xi Jinping. Trump has said the U.S. and China are talking, 
      something China disputes. 
 
   -- Trump said Sunday that when tariffs kick in, people's income taxes will 
      be "substantially reduced," with a focus on people making less than 
      $200,000 a year. A Center on Budget and Policy Priorities' analysis said 
      extending his 2017 tax cuts, cutting Medicaid, and imposing tariffs would 
      cost the bottom 20% of income-earning families an average of $2,270 a 
      year. 
 
   -- Bessent told ABC News that Trump's seeming haphazard tactic of announcing 
      tariffs, suspending some of them, and making exceptions is "strategic 
      uncertainty" designed to keep other countries' negotiators on their toes. 
      Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told CNN trade some trade deals 
      could be announced this week. 
 
   -- An NBC News poll found 55% of adults somewhat or strongly disapprove of 
      Trump's job on trade and tariffs, while 39% somewhat or strongly 
      approved. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos Poll that found that 72% of 
      Americans think that Trump's economic policies will cause a recession. 

What's Next: The House budget plan calls for $2 trillion in spending cuts to offset $4.8 trillion in proposed tax cuts, while the Senate's resolution allows for $5.8 trillion in borrowing and $4 billion in spending cuts, a Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget analysis found.

-- Janet H. Cho, Liz Moyer, and Matt Peterson

***

Four of the Mag 7 Report Earnings This Week. What to Watch.

A cloud of uncertainty has been floating over Wall Street as tech earnings season kicks into full gear and tariffs continue to rattle investor sentiment. So far, tech earnings have offered a mixed view on the sector's current state. This week brings reports from Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple.

   -- President Donald Trump has hiked tariffs on imported Chinese goods and 
      offered temporary exemptions on some tech products such as semiconductors 
      and laptops, but his ultimate policy has yet to be decided. That means 
      tech companies may struggle to provide updates to their financial 
      guidance. 
 
   -- Apple products are temporarily exempt from the highest levies, but 
      broader economic trouble could quickly imperil the sale of pricey iPhones, 
      MacBooks, and Apple Watches. Software and advertising also may take a hit 
      as companies rein in spending, which could hit Microsoft and Meta. 
 
   -- As for artificial intelligence, tech giants have pledged to spend 
      billions of dollars, but it remains to be seen whether they will alter 
      those plans. Microsoft plans $80 billion in AI spending, and Amazon 
      earmarked $100 billion. Investors will be paying close attention to 
      whether these companies maintain that guidance. 
 
   -- Cloud performance has been a closely watched part of Big Tech results for 
      several years now as Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon race each other to 
      win the hyperscaler race. But Wall Street is concerned about slowing 
      cloud growth, as was seen in the results for Alphabet and Microsoft last 
      quarter. 

What's Next: As four of the Magnificent Seven stocks prepare to report, the group as a whole has had its worst start to a year since early 2022. Each of the Mag 7 stocks is down more than 6.5% this year, according to Dow Jones Market Data, collectively losing $2.5 trillion in market value.

-- Angela Palumbo and Liz Moyer

***

Economic Reports to Highlight Labor Market, Inflation, GDP

This week's major economic news includes the April jobs report, the March report on a widely watched inflation gauge, and the first estimate of first quarter gross domestic product. All of that sets up the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision, with high expectations it will hold them steady.

   -- Friday's jobs report is expected to show the economy added 125,000 
      positions, down about 100,000 from March, while the unemployment rate is 
      expected to remain the same at 4.2%, according to FactSet. Consumer 
      confidence, due out on Tuesday, is expected to weaken from March. 
 
   -- Wednesday's first GDP estimate is expected to show the economy cooled, 
      with growth estimated to be 0.8% versus the fourth quarter's 2.4% growth, 
      according to economists tracked by FactSet. If accurate, that would be 
      the first time the GDP estimate dropped below 2% growth since the first 
      quarter 2024. 
 
   -- The personal consumption expenditures index is also due out on Wednesday. 
      Inflation is expected to slow to growth of 2.2% in March from a year 
      earlier, with flat growth from the prior month, according to FactSet. 
      Core PCE, without food and fuel, is expected to rise 2.6%. 
 
   -- Markets currently expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its 
      May 6-7 meeting, and start cutting rates in June, with three or four 
      quarter-percentage-point cuts expected by the end of the year, according 
      to CME's FedWatch tool. Tariff-induced inflation could complicate this 
      timeline. 

What's Next: Fed officials will need to navigate substantial policy changes in four distinct areas, including trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation, which Chair Jerome Powell recognized in a recent speech. The Fed also faces a Supreme Court decision on an issue that could weaken its independence.

-- Liz Moyer and Nicole Goodkind

***

Warren Buffett's Annual Meeting Appearance Is Days Away

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has trounced the S&P 500 this year, with the conglomerate's stock up 17% versus the index's 6% drop. That's Berkshire's biggest margin on the S&P since 2007 and comes as shareholders will flock to Omaha on Saturday for the annual Woodstock for Capitalists.

   -- Buffett, who turns 95 in August, told shareholders in February that "it 
      won't be long" before Berkshire executive Greg Abel succeeds him as CEO. 
      The two, accompanied by insurance chief Ajit Jain, will answer 
      shareholder questions for 4 1/2 hours on Saturday, an hour shorter than 
      last year. 
 
   -- Shareholders will inevitably want to hear Buffett's views on Berkshire, 
      tariffs, and the economy. Buffett has sharply reduced his public 
      appearances in recent years, and the annual meeting is the only time that 
      investors get to hear from him at any length and see how he is faring 
      with their own eyes. 
 
   -- Investors want to know if Berkshire will pay a dividend after Buffett 
      departs the company, which Buffett has long opposed. Shareholders might 
      want Berkshire to take advantage of stock market turmoil to invest some 
      of its $300 billion-plus in cash, more than the value of the stocks in 
      its portfolio. 
 
   -- Investors also could ask about Berkshire's Burlington Northern Santa Fe, 
      which has some of the industry's worst profit margins; Berkshire Hathaway 

      Energy, one of the biggest U.S. electric utilities; or about auto insurer 
      Geico, which now trails competitors State Farm and Progressive. 

What's Next: While Abel is likely to be CEO of the conglomerate, Buffett's children, Howard, Susan, and Peter, will control the trust holding his stock and wield considerable power. Howard, now a board member, is likely to become chairman, and Susan, also on the board, will likely remain a director.

-- Andrew Bary and Janet H. Cho

***

Tesla's New Lease Deal Could Stop Sales Slump

It's been a rough few months for Tesla, with a sharp drop in sales causing the electric-vehicle maker's shares to plummet. But a new lease could help stop the rot.

   -- Tesla is offering a long range rear wheel drive version of its Model 3 
      car at $349 a month, for 24 months, with no money down. That's a pretty 
      good deal, considering the average new car payment is roughly $750 a 
      month, according to data provider Edmunds. 
 
   -- The deal is new. It wasn't on Tesla's website a few days ago. Tesla 
      didn't respond to a request for comment about when it went live. 
 
   -- Auto makers always offer deals in the form of cash back, subsidized 
      leases, or below-market interest rates. It takes a little extra to get 
      drivers in a battery-powered car. The average EV incentive amounted to 
      13% of the transaction price, according to data from Kelly Blue Book. 
 
   -- Tesla sold about 337,000 cars in the first quarter, down 13% from the 
      same time a year ago, which was the worst quarterly drop in the company's 
      history. CEO Elon Musk's position in the Trump administration appeared to 
      turn off some buyers, and the company even mentioned brand damage on its 
      first-quarter earnings conference call. 

What's Next: Investors are looking for any evidence of a sales recovery -- and a rebound does look possible. Tesla is still making hundreds of millions of dollars a quarter from selling carbon credits to other car makers, and analysts polled by FactSet are projecting that it will sell 410,000 vehicles over the current quarter, even though tariffs and trade wars are driving up prices for consumers.

-- Al Root

***

MarketWatch Wants to Hear From You

President Donald Trump's first 100 days in office have been a whirlwind of executive activity -- as he has set in motion the firings of tens of thousands of federal workers, all but ended U.S. foreign aid and sent global markets reeling with steep on-again, off-again tariffs. What's in store for the next 100 days?

A MarketWatch correspondent will answer this question soon. Meanwhile, send any questions you would like answered to thebarronsdaily@barrons.com.

***

-- Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O'Donnell, Rupert Steiner

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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April 28, 2025 06:50 ET (10:50 GMT)

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