US natgas prices fell 2% to 5-month low on mild weather, low demand

Reuters
04-25
US natgas prices fell 2% to 5-month low on mild weather, low demand

U.S. LNG export feedgas on track to hit record high in April

U.S. gas output on track to hit record high in April

U.S. gas storage about 2% below five-year average

By Scott DiSavino

April 25 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 2% to a five-month low on Friday on forecasts for mild weather through mid May that will keep heating and cooling demand low, allowing utilities to keep putting more gas into storage than usual in coming weeks.

On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.6 cents, or 1.9%, to $2.87 per million British thermal units, putting the contract on track for its lowest close since November 14.

That kept the front-month in technically oversold territory for a seventh day in a row for the first time since February 2024.

For the week, the contract was down about 11%, putting it down for a fourth week in a row for the first time since July 2024. That put the contract down about 29% during those four weeks.

One factor pressuring prices in recent weeks has been fast growth in the amount of gas in storage so far this spring. After falling below normal levels in mid January, analysts project gas inventories will rise over the five-year normal in the next week or two.

The total amount of gas in storage was currently about 1% below normal levels for this time of year after cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including a record draw in January. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Looking ahead, the premium of March 2026 futures over April 2026 NGH26-J26, which the industry calls the widow maker, fell to their lowest since April 2021, while the premium of the November 2025 contract over October 2025 NGV25-X25 rose to its highest since February 2024.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.5 billion cubic feet per day in April from a monthly record of 106.2 bcfd in March.

On a daily basis, output was on track to fall by around 3.0 bcfd over the past seven days to a preliminary two-week low of 105.1 bcfd on Thursday, down from a record 108.1 bcfd on April 18. Traders noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Part of the reason for the output reduction was maintenance on U.S. energy firm Kinder Morgan's KMI.N 2.7-bcfd Permian Highway gas pipe from the Permian basin in West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Kinder Morgan has said it will be performing a turbine exchange at the Big Lake compressor station from May 13-26 that will reduce mainline capacity to around 2.2 bcfd.

Traders noted the Permian Highway reduction trapped some gas in the Permian basin, helping to cause spot gas prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas to average just 32 cents per mmBtu over the past two days, down from an average of $1.44 over the prior seven days.

Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 10.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 98.6 bcfd this week to 98.2 bcfd next week and 97.8 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for next week were lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. has climbed from a monthly record of 15.8 bcfd in March to 16.0 bcfd so far in April on rising flows to Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines export plant, under construction in Louisiana.

Week ended Apr 25 Forecast

Week ended Apr 18 Actual

Year ago Apr 25

Five-year average

Apr 25

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+89

88

+64

+58

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,023

1,934

2,476

2,036

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

-0.6%

-2.2%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.92

2.93

1.79

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.10

11.23

9.11

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

11.51

11.66

10.06

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

76

75

102

118

105

U.S. GFS CDDs

63

64

51

49

48

U.S. GFS TDDs

139

139

153

167

153

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

106.9

107.0

106.1

100.1

97.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.3

7.3

7.3

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

115.2

114.2

113.4

N/A

105.4

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.6

2.5

2.5

N/A

3.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.0

6.9

7.1

N/A

5.4

U.S. LNG Exports

16.0

15.5

15.6

11.9

11.8

U.S. Commercial

8.1

6.3

6.1

7.9

11.8

U.S. Residential

10.8

7.3

7.2

10.2

18.3

U.S. Power Plant

29.8

30.2

30.0

31.3

27.5

U.S. Industrial

23.1

22.4

23.4

22.7

23.8

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.3

5.3

5.2

5.3

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.1

2.0

1.9

2.1

3.3

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

79.4

73.6

73.0

79.6

90.1

Total U.S. Demand

105.0

98.6

98.2

N/A

110.6

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

85

86

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

85

85

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

86

86

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Apr 25

Week ended Apr 18

2024

2023

2022

Wind

14

18

11

10

11

Solar

8

8

5

4

3

Hydro

8

8

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

35

31

42

41

38

Coal

15

14

16

17

21

Nuclear

19

19

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.87

2.92

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.10

2.08

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.44

2.49

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.01

1.99

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.30

2.46

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.10

2.19

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.72

2.26

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.34

0.31

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.36

1.46

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

34.00

34.50

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

48.93

47.60

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

30.05

37.06

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

26.90

35.44

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

9.02

13.95

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Sharon Singleton)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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