Statistics Canada updates retail sales figures for February and March T 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, noted Scotiabank.

February had been previously guided to be a drop of about 0.5% month over month and the bank will see how StatsCan revises it, along with important details like volumes and drivers.

The first estimate for March also arrives on Friday, pointed out Scotiabank. Unlike the United States, there has been no evidence of tariff front-running in Canadian auto sales of late, or if there was such an effect, then it happened much earlier than in the U.S.

There was a surge in seasonally adjusted sales from October to January, but then Canadian sales fell back in February and were roughly flat in March. April sales are pending, so the bank will see, but at least so far it's not clear if there is recent tariff front-running in Canada.

Going forward, Scotiabank expects "significant" tariff-driven substitution effects within Canadian retail sales. For example, Canada doesn't need U.S.-made vehicles, as Canadians can buy ones made locally or from Europe and Asia which often produce "nicer" vehicles.