Carrier Global CARR is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 1.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is pegged at 57 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 8.06%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $5.11 billion, indicating a 17.4% year-over-year decline.

Carrier Global’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 8.68%. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Let’s see how things have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.

Factors Likely to Have Influenced CARR’s Q1 Performance

Carrier Global’s strong momentum in the Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) and aftermarket services is expected to have contributed to top-line growth in the first quarter. The growing requirement for heating and cooling systems across residential and commercial applications is expected to have driven the HVAC segment. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 HVAC revenues is pegged at $4.32 billion, indicating a decline of 4.87% year over year. 

Carrier Global is seeing strong order growth in key segments, particularly in North America, where residential HVAC orders increased approximately 10-15% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2024. Global commercial HVAC orders were also up 10%. These trends are expected to have continued in the first quarter as well.

Carrier Global’s aftermarket segment, which involves the repair, maintenance, and replacement of equipment, has been a consistent revenue generator. The company has been seeing a double-digit growth in this segment for several years, and this trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter as well.  

The data center market is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing heat generation from AI chips. Carrier Global’s efforts to capitalize on this growth by securing key wins and optimizing its global footprint are likely to have driven sales in the segment in the first quarter of 2025. 

The integration of Viessmann Climate Solutions is also expected to have enhanced CARR’s capabilities and market reach in the to-be-reported quarter, particularly in heat pump technology and sustainable solutions.

However, weakness in Europe and China affected RLC businesses, and softness in commercial refrigeration is expected to have hurt CARR’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

What Our Model Says for CARR

According to the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s the exact case here.

Carrier Global has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies worth considering, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases:

Primoris Services PRIM presently has an Earnings ESP of +13.02% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

Primoris Services shares have plunged 20.8% year to date. PRIM is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results on May 5.

Johnson Controls International JCI currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.91% and a Zacks Rank #3. 

Johnson Controls International shares are up 2.7% year to date. JCI is set to report its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on May 7.

Trane Technologies TT has an Earnings ESP of +1.25% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. 

Trane Technologies shares have declined 5.8% year to date. TT is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results on April 30.

 

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Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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