By Brian Swint

Economic data out of China are showing signs of the real-world impact of President Donald Trump's trade wars.

Export orders for the second-biggest economy plunged in April to the lowest since 2022 in the wake of Trump's Liberation Day, a survey of purchasing managers showed Wednesday. Overall manufacturing activity was the lowest in more than a year, according to the data, which are seen as a reliable early indicator of economic growth.

That news is bad for China, and it adds to ominous warnings about the impact on tariffs on U.S. growth. While it's not showing up in hard data yet--first quarter gross domestic product figures are due Wednesday, but only cover the period before the biggest tariffs were announced--consumer confidence has been shaken and companies are warning that their guidance may not be reliable.

Opinion polls suggest the public is becoming more concerned. For his part, Trump touted his economic success in his first 100 days in office on Tuesday evening in Michigan, saying that his tariffs are "genius" and that China wants "to make a deal."

"Investors have been hanging onto hopes for the pause in many tariffs to become permanent, and for a rapprochement between the U.S. and China, but the outlook is still clouded," said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Car Makers Cast Doubt

Car companies talked about the potential damage from tariffs in earnings calls early Wednesday. Stellantis, which owns the Dodge, Ram, and Chrysler brands, reported a steep drop in shipments and revenue in the first quarter. It holds an analyst call at 7 a.m. Eastern time.

Volkswagen, Europe's biggest car maker, stuck to its guidance for the year, but said that uncertainty risked undercutting results. Mercedes-Benz, another big German auto maker, also said it was unsure how big the tariff impact would be, but that it would be material. U.K. luxury automaker Aston Martin Lagonda, famous for making the sports cars driven by James Bond in movies, said it's limiting imports to the U.S. until there's more clarity on tariffs.

Meanwhile DHL, the German logistics group, reported higher earnings but said it expects the economic environment which could impact future results.

Put it all together and it's clear that companies are bracing for a hit that hasn't quite arrived yet. That's likely to be a recurring theme as earnings reports continue to flow in the rest of the week.

Write to Brian Swint at brian.swint@barrons.com

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April 30, 2025 05:54 ET (09:54 GMT)

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