Last week, you might have seen that Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:STEL) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.6% to US$25.31 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$105m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Stellar Bancorp surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.46 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Stellar Bancorp's five analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$426.4m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 16% to US$1.84 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$433.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.84 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Stellar Bancorp

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$28.80. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Stellar Bancorp analyst has a price target of US$30.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$28.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Stellar Bancorp is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.3% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 22% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.1% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Stellar Bancorp is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Stellar Bancorp's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Stellar Bancorp. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Stellar Bancorp analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Stellar Bancorp (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.