When Qualcomm Inc. reports earnings on Wednesday afternoon, investors will be paying close attention to the impact of Trump administration tariffs as well as the looming loss of Apple Inc.'s business.
Perhaps less important than the numbers themselves will be the company's commentary on what's ahead. For instance, Cantor analysts said in a note last week that they expect Qualcomm $(QCOM)$ to deliver an earnings beat and guidance in-line with expectations. But they noted the "increasing likelihood" that Apple $(AAPL)$ phases out Qualcomm's modem in the second half of this year, and they'll be listening for discussion on that point.
With likely Apple changes on the horizon, Cantor thinks current consensus estimates for 2025 and 2026 revenues "need to come down." The current consensus estimates are for 7% and 3% growth, respectively.
However, Cantor analysts said they "expect continued momentum in automotive driven by new vehicle launches," and are expecting guidance for the June period to reflect that this could be the first quarter with revenue upwards of $1 billion in that area.
Overall, Qualcomm is expected to report adjusted earnings of $2.82 a share for the second quarter, which ended in March, according to analysts' estimates compiled by FactSet. Second-quarter revenues are expected to be $10.6 billion.
Looking to the June quarter, the consensus is for $10.3 billion of revenue and $2.67 in adjusted earnings per share, according to FactSet.
Meanwhile, investors will be focused on how quickly Qualcomm's Internet of Things business is growing, Cantor analysts said, "with a clear focus on PCs, XR/AR glasses, and industrial segments" - the most important markets for the company's technology portfolio.
"All-in, while the diversification strategy is the right course for Qualcomm, it will take some time to materialize," the Cantor analysts said. "Therefore, despite expectations for a modest beat and in-line guide, we expect the stock to be a relative underperformer." They maintained a neutral rating on the stock.
Bernstein analysts expect Qualcomm to report revenues of $10.6 billion for the March quarter, and earnings of $2.80 a share. For the June quarter, Bernstein expects revenue of $10.4 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.62 a share.
With uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariffs, Bernstein analysts said they are unsure "how much visibility the company has" for the June quarter or the second half of the year.
"[W]e do note they don't necessarily mind being conservative when needed, though, so some softer commentary would hence not surprise us much (though we are mindful of potential near-term pull-forward effects as well)," Bernstein said.
Despite "heavy smartphone exposure" to tariffs, Qualcomm's stock "has held in pretty well, and has actually outperformed markedly" so far this year, according to Bernstein analysts. Qualcomm shares are down about 4% on a year-to-date basis, while the S&P 500 SPX is down 5% and the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX is off 15%.
"That being said, U.S. smartphone shipments (10% of total) are in fact dominated by iPhones (which are nominally going away anyway) and the company's fabless nature may help protect them from China retaliatory tariffs if they are implemented," Bernstein said.
The analysts there have an outperform rating on Qualcomm's stock.
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