Participants

Kimberly Orlando; Investor Relations; ADDO

Michael Olosky; President, Chief Executive Officer, Director; Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc

Matt Dunn; Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer; Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc

Daniel Moore; Analyst; CJS Securities

Timothy Wojs; Senior Research Analyst, Senior Research Analyst, General Industrial And Building Products; Robert W. Baird & Co Inc

Kurt Yinger; Analyst; D.A. Davidson & Co.

Presentation

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Simpson Manufacturing Co. Inc. first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Kim Orlando, with Investor Relations. Thank you, Kim. You may begin.

Kimberly Orlando

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Simpson Manufacturing Company's first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Any statements made on this call that are not statements of historical facts are forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on certain estimates and expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual or future results may vary materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements.
We encourage you to read the risks described in the company's public filings and reports which are available on the SECs or the company's corporate website. Except to the extent required by applicable securities laws, we undertake no obligation to update or publicly revise any of the forward-looking statements that we make here today, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
On this call, we will also refer to non-GAAP measures such as adjusted EBITDA, which is reconciled to the most comparable GAAP measure of net income in the company's earnings press release.
Please note that the earnings press release was issued today at approximately 4:15 PM Eastern time. The earnings press release is available on the Investor Relations page of the company's website at ir.simpsonmfg.com.Today's call is being webcast and a replay will also be available on the Investor Relations page of the company's website.
Now, I would like to turn the conference over to Mike Olosky, Simpson's President and Chief Executive Officer.

Michael Olosky

Thanks, Kim. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. With me today is Matt Dunn, our Chief Financial Officer.
Today, my remarks will provide an overview of our first-quarter performance and highlights from our end markets. Matt will then walk you through our financials and fiscal 2025 outlook in greater detail.
Now turning to our results, our net sales of $538.9 million reflected modest growth over the prior year in a highly uncertain macroeconomic environment in both the US and Europe. Over the past 12 months, I'm pleased to report that our buying performance in North America once again exceeded US housing starts by approximately 420 basis points.
Net sales in North America totaled $420.7 million, up 3.4% from $406.7 million last year. Results included a contribution of roughly $9 million from our 2024 acquisitions and a favorable comparison to prior-year net sales, which were negatively affected by the timing of volume discount estimates. Collectively, these items more than offset a modest decline in our volumes. Absent these factors, North American sales were relatively flat year over year. As a reminder, software, services, and equipment are not included in our volume calculations.
Our North American volume results were mixed in the first quarter, though sales to all end markets continue to demonstrate above market growth on a trailing 12-month basis.
In the component manufacturing market, volumes declined slightly versus last year. We saw solid results from our acquisition of Calculated Structure Designs and made progress aligning operations and sales to prepare for the scalability of our broadened digital solutions offering.
We continue to execute our digital solutions road maps to satisfy key component manufacturing customers and leverage our equipment offering to reach opportunities in this market. This has resulted in the conversion of several small- to mid-sized truss manufacturing customers in the first quarter.
In residential, volume performance was down modestly. We continue to focus on conversions and line expansions while also deepening builder partnerships through professional services, digital solutions, and equipment. Additionally, our outdoor living category had low-double-digit growth of a prior year, showing a strong start to the spring building season. We attribute this to our growing product offering and intentional marketing sales efforts to reach pro and DIY customers.
The national retail market saw mid-single-digit decreases. We offset a slow market by driving growth in e-commerce, new anchor product listings introduced last year, and additional retail space gained in our two largest retailers.
In OEM, we delivered high-single-digit volume growth year over year with strong sales growth and mass timber and off-site construction solutions. OEM remains a relatively small contributor to our overall revenue with significant opportunity for share gains.
And finally, in the commercial market, we improved volumes broadly across the business resulting in low-single-digit growth over last year despite a challenging commercial market. This momentum was driven by the strong performance of our anchor and cold-formed steel product lines.
Turning to Europe, our net sales of $113.9 million decreased 5.1% compared to prior year and decreased by $1.3 million on a local currency basis. On a volume basis, we believe our European businesses continue to outperform the local markets, supported by new applications and customer wins. Consolidated gross margin modestly improved to 46.8% from 46.1% in Q1 2024 despite higher input and labor costs.
Additionally, the timing of volume discount estimates just discussed had an unfavorable impact in the prior year. When excluding this factor, gross margin would have been relatively flat year on year. Further product and customer mix have and will continue to be a gross margin headwind.
Next, I'd like to take a moment to discuss some recent pricing dynamics in the marketplace. As previously announced in early April, we implemented target price increases at a weighted average rate of approximately 8% across certain wood connectors, fasteners, and mechanical anchor products in the US. Since our last pricing change, which was a decrease a few years back, we have experienced significant increases in our cost from our cost of goods to labor, energy, transportation, and equipment.
Additionally, while we are largely domestically sourced, we procure fasteners and a limited number of other products from countries that are subject to the recent announced tariffs. Accordingly, the price increases were an effort to offset both rising costs across non-material and material categories, as well as a portion related to the current trade policy actions. The increases will go into effect on June 2 following a 60-day notice period to our customers.
We understand that rising prices are especially challenging in a construction market where affordability remains a key concern. Therefore, we have and will continue to minimize additional increases. These price increases combined with strong cost discipline and productivity improvements will help us generally maintain our current gross margins and make selective investments to provide even better customer service.
Our first-quarter operating margin expanded by 90 basis points to 19% over the last year, reflecting investments that were more commiserate with our volumes and overall market performance in 2025. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA totaled $121.8 million, an increase of 3.8% year over year. Looking ahead, we will remain disciplined in cost management to protect our margins while prioritizing the retention of our valued customers and highly skilled workforce to support long-term execution.
Next, I'd like to highlight our strategic growth plan in the context of our three financial ambitions, which are: continuing above-market growth relative to US housing starts, maintaining an operating income margin at or above 20%, and driving EPS growth ahead of net revenue growth. We believe our business can deliver a 20% operating margin in a growing market environment.
For 2025, our outlook for US housing starts is to remain flat to up in the low-single-digit range from 2024 levels, with growth weighted towards the second half of the year. In Europe, housing starts are expected to remain broadly in line with 2024, with more substantial recovery anticipated in 2026 and beyond. As a growth-focused company with industry leading margins, we believe we can consistently drive EPS growth ahead of net revenue growth.
We also remain committed to returning at least 35% of our free cash flow to shareholders, reinforcing our balanced approach to capital allocation.
Before I conclude, I'm proud to share that both customer and employee engagement remains strong, as evidenced by recent survey results showing high levels of satisfaction and connection across both groups. These findings reflect the success of our strategy to inspire our employees and relentlessly serve our customer while also advancing our first two company ambitions: strengthening our values-based culture and being the business partner of choice.
In summary, we were pleased to deliver above-market growth in a challenging environment. Our focus on cost discipline while improving our position in diversified end markets has strengthened our business through the cycle, particularly in a soft housing market. We remain confident in the mid- to long-term housing outlook and believe Simpson is well positioned to capitalize on future growth.
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Matt, who will discuss our financial results and outlook in greater detail.

Matt Dunn

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings call today. Before I begin, I'd like to mention that unless otherwise stated, all financial measures discussed in my prepared remarks refer to the first quarter of 2025, and all comparisons will be year-over-year comparisons versus the first quarter of 2024.
Now turning to our results, our consolidated net sales increased 1.6% year over year to $538.9 million. Within the North America segment, net sales increased 3.4% to $420.7 million, which includes approximately $1.5 million in negative foreign currency translation. In Europe, net sales declined 5.1% to $113.9 million, primarily due to the unfavorable effect of approximately $4 million in foreign currency translation.
Globally, wood construction product sales were up 1.7% and concrete construction product sales were down 1.3%. Consolidated gross profit increased 3.1% to $252 million, resulting in a gross margin of 46.8% compared to 46.1%. On a segment basis, our gross margin in North America was 50%, marginally higher than the 49.3% reported in the prior year due primarily to the timing of volume discounts adversely affecting net sales and gross profit in the prior year.
Without the benefit from the absence of these discounts, gross margins would have been flat. Our gross margin in Europe decreased to 35.2% from 36.5%, primarily due to higher factory and overhead, as well as labor and warehouse costs, which were partly offset by lower material costs, all as a percentage of net sales.
From a product perspective, our first-quarter gross margin was relatively flat at 46% for wood products and was 49.5% for concrete products compared to 46.5%.
Now turning to expenses, total Q1 operating expenses were $149.7 million, an increase of 2.1%, primarily due to higher personnel costs and variable compensation. As a percentage of net sales, Q1 2025 operating expenses were 27.8% compared to 27.6%. As Mike indicated, we have seen increases in our major input costs over the past several years.
Further, the current tariffs and trade policy coupled with a run-up in both non-material and material input costs led us to enact price increases on our products effective June 2, the impact of which will be partly reflected in our Q2 results.
In recognizing price increases are generally not welcomed, we have worked to minimize them as much as possible by passing on only a portion of the anticipated tariff impacts. Additionally, we are evaluating sourcing options to mitigate the potential effects of tariffs. We will continue to monitor the market in 2025, and we will be limiting incremental investments in the business until we see a more meaningful improvement in the housing market.
To further detail our first quarter SG&A, our research and development and engineering expenses decreased 9.5% to $19.8 million, primarily due to a reorganization of our IT group, which resulted in the movement of approximately $3.4 million expense from R&D to general and administrative expense.
Selling expenses decreased modestly by 0.6% to $54.2 million, primarily due to reduced personnel costs, which were partly offset by higher travel costs. On a segment basis, selling expenses in North America were up approximately 0.7%. In Europe, they were down approximately 5%. General and administrative expenses increased by 7.8% to $75.7 million, largely as a result of the reallocation of IT group expenses I just discussed and higher personnel costs of $3.9 million.
As a result, our first-quarter consolidated income from operations totaled $102.3 million, an increase of 6.5% from $96.1 million.
Our consolidated operating income margin was 19%, up from 18.1%. In North America, income from operations increased 5.4% to $104.2 million, primarily due to higher gross profit, which was partly offset by increased personnel costs and variable incentive compensation.
In Europe, income from operations increased 12.7% to $9.3 million due to reduced operating expenses, including variable compensation costs. An operating income margin of 15% in Europe remains our mid-term goal. As a reminder, this target is predicated on various assumptions, including improved economic conditions and starts in Europe, the realization of [ostensive] synergies, the continuation of secular trends toward greater wood construction, and more stringent environmental regulations in Europe.
Our first-quarter effective tax rate was 25.5%, approximately 210 basis points above the prior-year period. Accordingly, net income totaled $77.9 million or $1.85 per fully diluted share compared to $75.4 million or $1.77 per fully diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $121.8 million, an increase of 3.8%, resulting in a margin of 22.6%.
Now turning to our balance sheet and cash flow. Our balance sheet remained healthy with cash and cash equivalents totaling $150.3 million at March 31, 2025, down $89.1 million from our balance at December 31, 2024, due primarily to capital investments and working capital increases. Our debt balance was approximately $379.8 million net of capitalized finance cost, and our net debt position was $229.5 million. We have $450 million remaining available for borrowing on our primary line of credit.
Our inventory position as of March 31, 2025, was $618.8 million, which was up $25.6 million compared to our balance as of December 31, 2024, mostly as a result of the higher price per pound from inventory on hand. Overall pounds in inventory were mostly flat.
We generated cash flow from operations of $7.6 million for the first quarter. With regard to capital allocation, our discipline strategy remains focused on both growth and shareholder returns. In the first quarter, we invested $50.5 million for capital expenditures, including our investments for facility upgrades and expansions, paid $11.7 million in dividends to our stockholders, and paid down $6.8 million in debt.
In addition, we repurchased 146,640 shares of common stock at an average price of $170.48 per share for a total of $25 million. As of March 31, $75 million remained available for repurchases through year-end 2025 under our $100 million authorization.
In regard to our growth investments, both the Columbus, Ohio and Gallatin, Tennessee projects remain on time and on budget. As a reminder, these two investments expand our warehouse and manufacturing capacity, ensuring we continue to provide industry-leading service and support to our valued customers.
The grand opening of our Columbus facility is scheduled for May. Gallatin's new facility is anticipated to open in the second half of 2025. Gallatin will play a strategic role in optimizing our fastener sourcing model. Currently, we manufacture approximately one-third of our fasteners in Gallatin, with the remaining two-thirds sourced from Taiwan.
The new greenfield operation will improve this mix closer to 50/50 and allows to in-source key third-party processes such as heat treating and coatings. This initiative is expected to reduce tariff exposure and gives a significant advantage in terms of inventory lead times.
Separately, we are continuing to integrate our recent 2024 acquisitions which have been performing in line with our expectations. At the same time, we will continue to actively evaluate potential M&A opportunities that accelerate progress on our key growth initiatives and improve our overall operating efficiencies.
Next, I'll turn to our 2025 financial outlook. Based on business trends and conditions as of today, April 28, we are reaffirming our guidance for the full year ending December 31, 2025, as follows. We expect our operating margin to be in the range of 18.5% to 20.5%. Additional key assumptions include: US housing starts to be flat to up low-single digits from 2024 levels. As a reminder, if housing starts are up low-single digits, we'd expect to trend toward the higher end of the range.
If the market growth is flat or slightly down, we would expect to be closer to the mid and low end of the range respectively. Additionally, we are expecting a slightly lower overall gross margin based on the addition of new warehouses, as well as increases in labor, factory, and tooling as a percentage of net sales, which we anticipate will be partly offset by the price increases that will go into effect June 2, and an ongoing mixed headwind from products and customers that continues to impact our margins.
Further, our margin guidance includes a projected benefit of $10 million to $12 million from the sale of the Gallatin property based on a contracted sales price of $19.1 million.
Next, interest expense on our term loan, which had borrowings of $379.8 million as of March 31, 2025, is expected to be approximately $0.4 million including the benefit from interest rate and cross currency swaps, mitigating substantially all of the volatility from changes in interest rates. Interest on our cash and money markets is expected to offset this expense. Our effective tax rate is estimated to be in the range of 25.5% to 26.5%, including both federal and state income tax rates based on current tax laws.
And finally, our capital expenditures are estimated to be in the range of $150 million to $170 million, which includes approximately $75 million for the completion of both the Columbus facility expansion and the new Gallatin fastener facility.
In closing, Simpson had a solid start to 2025. We continue to believe Simpson is poised to execute our strategic plan for the balance of 2025 through ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. As part of that plan, we will work diligently to ensure that our expense base and investments are aligned with market conditions to ensure the delivery of a strong operating income margin.
As always, we will continue to provide our customers with unparalleled service and support. As a result of our significant investments in growth, Simpson is well positioned to continue above-market growth.
With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator to begin the Q&A session.

Question and Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Daniel Moore, CJS Securities.

Daniel Moore

Good afternoon, Mike, Matt. Thanks for taking the questions, as always. Maybe just start with the outlook, obviously, the guidance is unchanged. How is all the tariff noise and related impact to consumer confidence impacted, I guess either the range or your outlook in general for US housing starts?
I know you mentioned unchanged a couple of times. Is it more a function of maybe, visibilities changed a bit, or relative likelihood of kind of the top bottom end of the range? Just how are you thinking about housing relative to maybe 60 days ago?

Michael Olosky

Okay, good question, Dan. So we're obviously talking with our customers, getting a lot of info from them, and then we're spending a lot of time with the people that are building market forecasts, and you still got a lot of different mixed views. I think consistently, everybody believes first half's going to be a little bit softer than the second half with the hopes that things pick up.
And I think the big driver that we keep hearing from our customers is maybe the possibility of increased interest rate cuts. So when you add it all up, we came into the year, we were thinking low single digits, we put in there, now our estimates flat to low-single digits is kind of how we're thinking about it from a market perspective.
Matt, you want to talk about how that impacts our guidance?

Matt Dunn

Yeah, sure. In terms of our guidance, Dan, we still feel comfortable with the outlook that we provided in Q1. Looking at the latest forecast outlook, flat to maybe slightly up as you said from a market perspective. We still feel we can be in that range and obviously, the pricing impact that we announced gives us some flexibility that we didn't have visibility of where that was going to be when we gave guidance before. So still feel very confident in the range and the middle of the fairway, so to speak.

Daniel Moore

Really helpful and appreciate all the color on the price increases. Just wondering what feedback you've gotten at this point, just given the general macro uncertainty? Any more pushback than usual? I guess I'm thinking particularly from big box retailers or -- you've always had been able to push through, when needed, so just to see if there's any change there in terms of the tone of conversations with customers?

Michael Olosky

Yeah, I mean, Dan, we try very hard to have a fair price for our products. As you know, we're typically less than 1% of the material of the house. We like to think we had a lot of value in service and support through our engineering teams, our innovation teams, our sales teams out in the field and in everything we do to provide great service out in the field.
So we're working hard to make sure that our customers understand the value that we bring, and we're doing our best to try to offset as much of these costs as we can so that we've got a reasonable premium that allows us to invest back into the business to better support our customers.

Matt Dunn

I would add, Dan, this is Matt. In terms of our price increase, as we mentioned, we've seen our cost inputs going up over the last couple years. And then obviously with the recent tariff announcements, but I think just to be clear, we're not passing through the full dollar impact of the tariff because we recognize market conditions, the affordability challenges, some of our competitors in terms of where they source from.
And so we've been very thoughtful where we've adjusted the prices and have not passed fully through the tariff impact. Obviously, we'll see where that all nets out after negotiations on tariffs with the governments that are involved. But just being very thoughtful of where we take those price increases because we do need to offset the costs have gone up over the last several years, including the tariff impacts most recently.

Daniel Moore

Certainly makes sense. You mentioned a couple of things, you potentially freezing capital investments until housing improves. I assume that's obviously post the Gallatin and Tennessee projects, I should say, the Ohio and Tennessee projects which are already underway. Any other kind of steps to mitigate potential tariffs or exposure that you're contemplating beyond the pricing that you described?

Michael Olosky

Yeah, if you look at our single biggest investment, the Gallatin facility, so that certainly is going to help us strike a better balance of locally produced fasteners and eventually some anchors compared to where we are today. So there's some work that we're trying to do there or we're trying to accelerate some equipment that we put in that facility.
We also have the option of maybe importing some products from Europe, but I think the thing that we want to do, Dan, is we're thinking mid and long term on this story as well as trying to balance the short-term cost. Because we don't want to make a bunch of changes and just have everything undo and then maybe the business case doesn't work out as well as we had hoped originally. So we're looking at all kinds of options and doing everything we can to manage both the short term and the long term.

Daniel Moore

Perfect. And last for me and I'll get back in queue, but just given the strength of the balance sheet and the pull back and share price, obviously you're active in Q1. Any changes in terms of the relative order of capital allocation, and how aggressively are you likely to be buying back stock, versus maybe looking at M&A and at least in the near term? Thanks again.

Matt Dunn

Yeah, we were active in the first quarter. We bought back $25 million against our $100 million authorization for 2025, so $75 million left, so we continue to be desiring to return capital shareholders see a share repurchase. I think you'll see us kind of stay the course like we've been on the last two years. I don't know that we would jump into any significant opportunistic repurchase versus what we've already sort of announced as part of the authorization.

Daniel Moore

Perfect, I'll jump back when I have a follow-up. Thanks again.

Operator

Timothy Wojs, Baird.

Timothy Wojs

Hey, guys, good afternoon. Nice job. Maybe just for -- what is the annualized tariff impact that you guys have to absorb without any sort of mitigation?

Michael Olosky

Yeah, so, Tim, when we look at the business, we import a relatively small percentage of the cost of goods from Asia, so we're not releasing the -- we're not releasing the exact number. When we look at the price increase that we talked about, it's a weighted average 8%, so that helps us basically manage all the cost increases we've seen over the last three-plus years and pretty much everything but steel.
Now, we see steel going up. And then that also helps us offset part of the tariff. So just to be clear, we are not passing through all of the tariff-related cost to our customers. But bigger picture, relatively small percentage of the goods that we sell today come from Europe -- come from Asia, sorry, come from Asia.

Timothy Wojs

Okay, got you. That's helpful. And then I guess just when you're thinking about the kind of -- so just I want to make sure I kind of understand this. So all of the costs outside of tariffs were kind of included in the original guide and now we kind of have pricing layered in. So obviously, you have tariffs, it sounds like it's not a big portion of the number. But all of the cost that you guys had incurred in terms of inflation and things like that, that was largely in the guidance range before, right?

Matt Dunn

Yes, I'd say you kind of have three factors moving, Tim. You have the costs that were already in the guidance. The pricing was not. We've announced the pricing. The tariffs weren't in the guidance. We're offsetting part of that with the pricing and then we're also -- when we gave our original guidance, we gave the range and we sort of clarified high end of the range based on low-single-digit housing starts in the market, middle of the range would be flattish, and then lower end of the range would be if we saw a decline.
I think sitting where we are today in terms of the housing starts, first quarter, a little bit soft in terms of the market. We believe there's upside in the back half and we can still get to a low-single-digit housing starts market environment and we hear that from the customers that we talked to and various forecasters. They're all over the board.
We still think it's possible so we softened that a little bit in terms of flat to slightly up US housing starts, but yeah, that was all -- essentially, everything was baked into the guide except for the pricing and the tariffs.

Timothy Wojs

Okay, got you. And then, just the gain that you have coming through with Gallatin, is that going to hit in this specific quarter? I just want to make sure that if that's kind of running through the P&L that we get the modeling right on that?

Michael Olosky

Yeah, it should hit in the third quarter, Tim.

Timothy Wojs

Okay, got you. All right, I'll hop back in queue. Thanks a lot, guys.

Operator

Kurt Yinger, D.A. Davidson.

Kurt Yinger

Great, thanks, and good afternoon, everyone. Just wanted to start off on the demand side was hoping you could talk about kind of the seasonal progression of volumes maybe moving into March and what you've seen here in early April, as well as how consistent that is with kind of what you would expect normally with seasonality and maybe on a year-over-year basis as well?

Michael Olosky

Yeah, good question, Kurt. So as you know, pre-COVID, there was a fairly significant difference in seasonality between the second, third quarter and the first and the fourth. During the COVID times, that kind of evened out a little bit and now we're trending back towards that more traditional seasonality split.
Say if we look at it this year and actually the second half of last year into this year, we're still not seeing big trends one way or another. October last year was a pretty good month for us. November, December wasn't. January and February were not particularly good months. March was okay. April, let's see on how that plays out, so we're not seeing a consistent pickup in the business yet. We do believe that's going to come going forward.

Matt Dunn

Yeah, and then on a year-over-year perspective, Kurt, last year Q1 our volume was up, I believe 8%. This year, Q1 volume is down slightly, so we definitely had a tough comparison period from a volume standpoint a year ago. As you know, last year that the rest of the year got a little bit softer both in the market and obviously on our volume.
But to be pretty close to flat on volume in this Q1 compared to Q1 year ago with what Mike described, which is what January and February were a little soft, there definitely was some kind of weird weather and things in terms of snow in the southeast and not being a leap year, one less shipping day, all those things. But overall, a pretty solid volume and quarter against a pretty tough comparison. And then as Mike said, seasonally, generally, Q1 is maybe a little bit lower than kind of the core two quarters Q2, Q3.

Kurt Yinger

Right, okay, that's helpful. And then just going back to gross margin --

Michael Olosky

Kurt, usually, it's 22, 28, 28, 22, is typically --

Matt Dunn

Percentage of our year.

Kurt Yinger

Right, okay, that's helpful. Going back to gross margin, in Q2, obviously, you only get pricing benefits for part of the quarter. Typically, we see some seasonal uplift which is beneficial there as well. I guess as we get into the back half and think about some of these additional costs and inventory starting to roll through, I guess how would you have us think about kind of the trajectory of gross margins, Q3 to Q4, and maybe even kind of a jumping off point into early next year, all considered?

Matt Dunn

Yeah, there's lots of moving parts. Obviously Kurt, you're right, the pricing will kick in June, so we get a little bit of a slight bump for one month in Q2 to offset some of the costs that are that are already coming in. We're already receiving containers of tariff goods or tariff burden goods already in April, so that the costs are starting to roll in. I think we get a little bit of leverage if you will, from a volume standpoint and those higher volume quarters Q2 and Q3.
But I think overall for the year, we're expecting our gross margin to be essentially flat. We're trying to maintain our gross margin. So while we're taking -- while some of the costs were baked in terms of the things that have gone up in the last few years, we're not pricing on dollar for dollar on tariffs. So I think our goal would be to keep our gross margin relatively flat versus a year ago for the whole year.
We had a weird comparison in Q1. Obviously, we talked some of the timing of volume discounts that were negatively impacted in Q1 year ago. That's why the gross margin shows a more favorable in Q1 this year than it really would be on an adjusted basis.

Kurt Yinger

Okay, and maybe just a point of clarification to make sure I understand it right, when you're talking about not fully offsetting the additional tariff increases, that conversation would also kind of incorporate the other cost inflation the last couple of years, right? If we were just to kind of isolate that weighted average 8% increase, that itself would offset the tariffs or am I maybe misunderstanding that?

Michael Olosky

Yeah, so we've got a tariff impact, Kurt. We have impact from increasing costs that we've seen over the last three years. We've got productivity that we're trying to drive. We've got additional investments into the business in terms of the factories we've talked about, but also additional warehouses to provide even better support to our customers. Add all that up, the target, as Matt said, is to keep gross margins flat and ultimately, the target here is to be that 20% average income driving solid above US housing starts volume growth.

Kurt Yinger

Okay, all right. Just last one. You talked about some small- and medium-sized kind of conversions in the component manufacturer space. I think you alluded to some expanded shelf space in the national retail side. Any way you can kind of roughly maybe size those opportunities as we look out over the next kind of 12 to 18 months?

Michael Olosky

Well, that, at the end of the day is what helping us drive that 420 basis points above the US housing starts, Kurt. I think you've heard me say this before, it's typically a lot of singles and doubles using a baseball analogy. And that's what's been able to drive that above-market growth.

Kurt Yinger

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

And we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session, and this also concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.