BlockBeats News, May 1st, Global economists are currently closely watching the US April nonfarm payroll data report to be released on Friday. The market is concerned that the US labor market may experience severe turbulence due to the tariff battle initiated by the Trump administration, leading the financial market to significantly increase the probability of the Fed opening the year's first rate cut in June.

Wall Street's top asset management firm, Apollo Global Management, warned that due to the 145% tariffs imposed on other countries in early April and the escalation of global trade wars, this month's nonfarm payroll could fall into negative territory, and the unemployment rate is feared to surge to 4.5% (expected 4.2%). Data shows that the effective US tariff rate during the survey period (April 7-13) has reached 23% (a new high since 1900), and both business confidence and consumer expectations have collapsed simultaneously.

The Fed's rate cut expectations are rapidly heating up: Board Member Waller (2024 voter) stated, "Tariffs causing layoffs will support rate cuts," while Cleveland Fed President Mester (2026 voter) hinted, "Action will be taken if June data meets expectations." Goldman Sachs' model shows that initial jobless claims (currently at 222,000), the ISM Services Index, and other high-frequency indicators have become precursors of a recession. CME's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June has soared to 12.7%.

Although the current labor market still shows resilience (March nonfarm payrolls added 228,000, far exceeding expectations), the lagging effects of tariffs are fermenting: sharp declines in new orders for businesses, frozen capital expenditure plans, historically high levels of inventory backlog, and consumers are boosting purchasing power ahead of price hikes. A recent Bloomberg survey shows that economists have raised the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months from 30% to 45%, with JPMorgan and BCA Research warning of a probability exceeding 50%. Apollo's model deduces that a supply chain breakdown triggered by tariffs could lead to an economic recession in the summer of 2025, and nonfarm payroll data will become a key turning point in predicting the "rate cut pace-economic hard landing" logic chain.

BiyaPay, as the world's first multi-asset trading wallet, demonstrates unique value and has now connected 30 fiat currencies with 200 digital currencies for instant exchange. Users can participate directly in the US/Hong Kong stock market through a USDT 1:1 equivalent exchange to USD, offering zero fees for spot/contract Maker transactions.