The next few years should be the best on record for Lucid (LCID -0.20%) when it comes to absolute sales growth. With a current sales base of around $800 million, analysts expect revenue to jump by 82% in 2025, growing by another 91% in 2026. Looking even further ahead, these high growth rates could be sustained thanks to several expected vehicle launches that will be affordable to tens of millions of new potential buyers.
With an exciting future, how have long-term Lucid investors fared? If you had invested $1,000 into the stock during its 2021 IPO, you might be surprised to learn how much you'd have today.
Two electric car stocks -- Rivian and Lucid -- went public in 2021 at high valuations. Since then, shares of both companies have plummeted by more than 80%. A $1,000 initial investment in Lucid would be worth just $62 today. Ouch. Even Tesla, the largest of the three, has seen its share price fall by 20% since 2021.
With all this growth occurring from a sales perspective, what went wrong? The answer is simpler than you might guess.
RIVN data by YCharts
Since going public in 2021, both Rivian and Lucid have increased sales aggressively. Rivian's sales are up 867% over that time period, with Lucid's revenue up by nearly 350%. Yet the share prices for both have plummeted due to overly optimistic expectations. Both EV stocks were priced at very high multiples. And while growth did occur, it failed to meet market expectations, sending valuations sharply lower.
After a multiyear correction, perhaps Lucid shares are finally attractive for new investors. But let its history be a lesson to all: No matter how quickly a company is growing, the valuation you pay as an investor will ultimately determine your returns.
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