Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

The earnings figure itself is key, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb even higher.

2 Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to look at a qualifying stock. Dollar General (DG) holds a Zacks Rank #3 at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.48 a share 27 days away from its upcoming earnings release on May 29, 2025.

By taking the percentage difference between the $1.48 Most Accurate Estimate and the $1.46 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Dollar General has an Earnings ESP of 0.99%.

DG is just one of a large group of Retail-Wholesale stocks with a positive ESP figure. O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

O'Reilly Automotive, which is readying to report earnings on July 23, 2025, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $11.65 a share, and ORLY is 82 days out from its next earnings report.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for O'Reilly Automotive is $11.60, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of 0.45%.

DG and ORLY's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>

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Dollar General Corporation (DG) : Free Stock Analysis Report

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) : Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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