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S&P 500 NEGATIVE-TO-POSITIVE OUTLOOK RATIO SO FAR IN LINE WITH YR AGO

The ratio of negative-to-positive outlooks so far from S&P 500 companies for the second-quarter of 2025 is at 1.5 to 1, the same as it was at this point in the earnings cycle a year ago, according to LSEG data Friday.

The total number of guidance announcements is at 61 so far for the second quarter of 2025 compared with 51 for the second quarter of 2024 at a similar point in the earnings period a year ago, the data shows.

Uncertainty surrounding the impacts of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and the resulting global trade tensions have dominated earnings calls this results season, however, and many companies across the globe have been changing their guidance.

"Forward guidance trends reflect an elevated level of uncertainty among corporates," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note Friday.

Also, they said: "Management commentary has been focused on the risk of recession and the potential impact of tariffs."

Negative guidance announcements have totalled 33 so far, while positive ones are at 22 and 6 were in line with expectations, the data shows. A year ago, there were 28 negative guidance announcements versus 19 positive ones.

With results in from 357 of the S&P 500 companies this earnings season, year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth for the first quarter of 2025 is now seen at 13.6%, up from 9.7% a week ago.

Many tech-related companies including top names such as Microsoft MSFT.O reported this week, helping to boost estimated growth.

(Caroline Valetkevitch)

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