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WARMING UP THE GRILL EARLY TO AVOID BEING CHARRED BY TARIFFS

With the sun starting to shine and temperatures rising, S&P Global Market Intelligence turned its focus to BBQ grills.

The firm notes that imports of gas grills tend to peak in May, ahead of the unofficial start of the U.S. summer season.

In data from 2016 to 2024 they cite a May peak that is 91.3% higher than the September trough on a days-adjusted basis.

But this year's grilling season prep comes with a side of global trade war, since sea borne U.S. grill imports are mostly from mainland China, which sent 59.9% in Q1 vs 13.3% from Hong Kong and 7.9% from South Korea.

With that in mind, they estimated a convoluted tariff impact on grill prices.

Since grills are steel derivative products, this would subject them to 25%, Section 232, duties on steel.

And while this exempts them from the 125% “reciprocal” IEEPA duty, they would still be subject to the 20% duty from the IEEPA fentanyl action, according to the research.

So that leaves the low range of estimated duties between Section 301, 232, and IEEPA at 45%.

However, with some products in the group present in the Section 301 lists from 2019 as well, this would add another 25%.

So in all, grills this summer could be subject to 70% in tariffs.

But S&P Global says importers may have prepared by front-loading inventories, citing Market Intelligence data showing import volumes in the first quarter of 2025 38.5% higher than the first quarter last year on a days-adjusted.

And last year was already 27.6% higher than the first quarter in 2023, which represented a “destocking” period after the highs of 2021 and 2022.

But then they cite preliminary data for the first 24 days of April 2025 slowing to 12.4%. This represented a dip from March of 7.7%. And this compared with the last nine years, when April rose by 18.9% versus March.

And this, they say, "may indicate that tariffs have driven an early peak in shipments."

(Sinéad Carew)

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EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

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