It's been a good week for Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE:MA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 4.7% to US$559. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$7.3b and statutory earnings per share of US$3.59 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Mastercard is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mastercard after the latest results.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Mastercard from 35 analysts is for revenues of US$31.9b in 2025. If met, it would imply a notable 9.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 8.8% to US$15.74. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$31.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$15.83 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Mastercard

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$615, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mastercard at US$685 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$466. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Mastercard'shistorical trends, as the 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 13% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.0% per year. So although Mastercard is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mastercard going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Mastercard is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.