Post Holdings, Inc. POST is likely to register a decline in both top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on May 8. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at almost $2 billion, implying a 1.1% decrease from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. 

However, the consensus mark for earnings has moved down a penny in the past seven days to $1.18 per share, indicating a decline of 21.9% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. POST delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.3%, on average. (Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Post Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Post Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Post Holdings, Inc. Quote

Things to Know About POST’s Upcoming Results

Post Holdings' second-quarter fiscal 2025 performance is likely to have been pressured by a headwind from Avian influenza outbreaks at two of its third-party contracted farms, which, although not materially affecting the fiscal first quarter, are expected to have led to a supply imbalance. The company expects a headwind of $30 million to $50 million in its fiscal second quarter due to costs before pricing impact compared with the fiscal first quarter. The actual figure might vary significantly, given the volatility in agricultural market prices.

Post Holdings has been grappling with rising selling, general and administrative expenses, particularly due to higher advertising and commercial expenditures. In addition, consumer demand remains subdued, especially in price-sensitive categories like cereal, which has been impacting the Post Consumer Brands segment. These challenges pose a threat to Post Holdings’ fiscal second-quarter results.

Nonetheless, Post Holdings has been benefiting from the ongoing expansion of its Foodservice segment as demand from restaurants, institutional clients and foodservice operators remains robust. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company's Foodservice segment’s fiscal second-quarter revenues is pegged at $585 million, indicating year-over-year growth from $554.8 million reported in the same quarter last year.

The company’s effective pricing strategies have been helping mitigate higher input costs, while its focus on premium product offerings continues to drive growth. Strong demand across key segments, coupled with disciplined cost management, is expected to have supported overall performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

Earnings Whispers for POST

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Post Holdings this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here. 

POST has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +3.22% at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Some Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies worth considering, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

The J. M. Smucker Company SJM currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.52% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $2.25, which implies a 15.4% decrease year over year. The consensus estimate for J. M. Smucker’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.2 billion, which indicates a decline of 1% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. SJM delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.7%, on average.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. OLLI currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.64% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2025 EPS is pegged at 70 cents, which implies a 4.1% decrease year over year.

The consensus mark for Ollie's Bargain’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $564.2 million, which indicates growth of 10.9% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. OLLI delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.3%, on average.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. GO currently has an Earnings ESP of +12.50% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2025 EPS is pegged at 7 cents, which implies a 22.2% decrease year over year.

The consensus mark for Grocery Outlet Holding’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.1 billion, which indicates an increase of 8.8% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. GO delivered a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of roughly 8.3%, on average.

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The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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