US natgas prices ease on lower flows to LNG export plans and forecasts for less demand

Reuters
05-06
US natgas prices ease on lower flows to LNG export plans and forecasts for less demand

US LNG export feedgas hit record high in April

US gas output hit record high in April

US gas storage about 1% over five-year normal

By Scott DiSavino

May 6 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Tuesday on forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and a decline in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas export plants for spring maintenance.

That price decline came despite a continued drop in output in recent weeks.

Gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.0 cents, or 0.6%, to $3.53 per million British thermal units.

Looking forward, the premium of futures for July over June NGM25-N25 rose to a record 34 cents per mmBtu.

Analysts said mild weather expected to last through at least late May should keep heating and cooling demand low, allowing utilities to continue injecting more gas into storage than normal for this time of year.

Gas stockpiles were around 1% above the five-year normal.

Inventories had been below normal from mid-January through late April after utilities pulled a monthly record 1.013 billion cubic feet of gas from storage in January to keep homes and businesses warm during extreme cold weather this winter. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL

Some analysts said mild weather and record output this spring could allow energy firms to add record amounts of gas into storage in May. The current all-time monthly injection high of 494 bcf was set in May 2015.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 103.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April.

Since gas output hit a daily record high of 17.4 bcfd on April 18, production was on track to drop by around 4.8 bcfd to a preliminary 10-week low of 102.6 bcfd on Tuesday. Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 21.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 96.3 bcfd this week to 94.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 15.2 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to drop to a preliminary seven-week low of 14.2 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to a decline in flows to Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in operation in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi in operation and under construction in Texas.

Gas flows to Cameron were on track to hold around 1.1 bcfd on Monday and Tuesday, down from an average of 1.8 bcfd over the prior seven days, while flows to Corpus were on track to drop to 1.5 bcfd on Tuesday, down from an average of 2.2 bcfd over the prior seven days.

Officials at both Cameron LNG and Cheniere were not immediately available for comment on the feedgas reductions. The companies, however, have told customers in separate postings that they were conducting maintenance pipelines and other equipment that supplies gas to their plants.

Energy traders noted the feedgas reductions and pipeline work was likely all part of normal maintenance done in the spring and autumn when demand for gas for heating and cooling is low.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $11 the Japan Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended May 2 Forecast

Week ended Apr 25 Actual

Year ago May 2

Five-year average

May 2

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+99

+107

+81

+79

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,140

2,041

2,557

2,115

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+1.2%

+0.2%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.59

3.55

2.42

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.50

10.98

10.12

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

11.26

11.26

11.10

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

47

47

49

75

75

U.S. GFS CDDs

85

79

79

73

67

U.S. GFS TDDs

132

126

128

148

142

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

104.8

103.7

103.9

100.0

96.3

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.5

7.3

7.5

N/A

7.0

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

112.2

111.0

111.4

N/A

103.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.4

2.7

2.6

N/A

2.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.2

6.2

6.6

N/A

6.1

U.S. LNG Exports

15.6

14.4

14.7

12.6

10.4

U.S. Commercial

6.0

5.9

5.2

5.7

5.7

U.S. Residential

6.9

6.5

5.2

6.1

6.6

U.S. Power Plant

31.0

30.9

31.1

33.7

29.7

U.S. Industrial

22.3

22.5

22.1

21.8

21.5

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.1

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.6

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

73.5

73.1

70.7

74.6

71.4

Total U.S. Demand

98.7

96.3

94.7

N/A

90.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

86

85

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

85

85

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

86

86

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended May 9

Week ended May 2

2024

2023

2022

Wind

12

14

11

10

11

Solar

8

8

5

4

3

Hydro

8

7

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

36

36

42

41

38

Coal

15

15

16

17

21

Nuclear

20

18

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

3.26

3.10

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.86

2.50

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.79

2.54

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

2.77

2.48

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

3.02

2.90

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

3.17

2.71

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.89

2.50

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.84

1.52

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.44

1.50

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

52.28

44.86

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

46.29

47.17

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

48.15

46.82

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

32.21

25.67

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

18.46

27.90

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; editing by David Evans)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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