What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. However, after investigating Brickworks (ASX:BKW), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.

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What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Brickworks, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.00034 = AU$1.9m ÷ (AU$5.8b - AU$252m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to January 2025).

So, Brickworks has an ROCE of 0.03%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Basic Materials industry average of 8.0%.

View our latest analysis for Brickworks

In the above chart we have measured Brickworks' prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Brickworks for free.

What Does the ROCE Trend For Brickworks Tell Us?

On the surface, the trend of ROCE at Brickworks doesn't inspire confidence. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 1.0%, but since then they've fallen to 0.03%. On the other hand, the company has been employing more capital without a corresponding improvement in sales in the last year, which could suggest these investments are longer term plays. It's worth keeping an eye on the company's earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.

In Conclusion...

Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by Brickworks' reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. Yet to long term shareholders the stock has gifted them an incredible 117% return in the last five years, so the market appears to be rosy about its future. However, unless these underlying trends turn more positive, we wouldn't get our hopes up too high.

Brickworks could be trading at an attractive price in other respects, so you might find our free intrinsic value estimation for BKW on our platform quite valuable.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.