The world’s biggest international oil and gas firms are sticking to their dividend distribution policies as most met or exceeded analyst expectations of first-quarter profits.

BP and Chevron reduced the pace of their share buybacks for the second quarter, but the others, Exxon, Shell, and TotalEnergies, maintained their guidance on repurchases despite the slump in oil prices at the start of the second quarter.

All five Big Oil firms touted their shareholder distributions and resilience in the earnings releases and conference calls.

Some fared better than others, but all five haven’t started panicking over the price crash – which was just made worse by this weekend’s OPEC+ decision to add another three monthly increases in production into one month in June.

The first-quarter earnings and guidance at Big Oil acknowledged the heightened market volatility and uncertainty, but none of the firms moved to significantly cut shareholder distributions in the form of dividends and buybacks.

The big question ahead for Big Oil is how much damage the second-quarter earnings would do, considering the fact that oil prices have crashed since April 2, when President Donald Trump – a vocal supporter of Big Oil and “drill, baby, drill” – launched his tariff offense against the world and China in particular.

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In the first quarter, all five Big Oil firms except BP met or exceeded analyst expectations in terms of earnings.

TotalEnergies saw its first-quarter earnings decline amid weak refining margins, but the French supermajor remains confident it can sustain $2-billion buybacks in the second quarter despite lower oil prices. At 2.55 million boe/d, the group’s output increased thanks to the continued ramp-up of projects in Brazil, the United States, Malaysia, Argentina, and Denmark.

Among the others, Shell clearly outperformed BP in the UK, and Exxon reported better earnings than Chevron in the U.S.

Shell launched another $3.5-billion buyback, keeping the pace of its share repurchases, after posting consensus-beating earnings for the first quarter.

The new share buyback program for the next three months will mark the 14th consecutive quarter of at least $3 billion in buybacks at the UK-based supermajor.

BP, however, reduced by $1 billion its quarterly share buyback program after reporting weaker-than-expected earnings, significantly lower cash flow, and rising net debt for the first quarter.

Analysts have seen BP as the weakest link among Big Oil amid struggles with poor stock performance, activist investor Elliott demanding quick and deep spending cuts, and the most recent U-turn in strategy.

Across the Atlantic, Q1 earnings at ExxonMobil topped analyst estimates as higher production in the Permian and offshore Guyana offset part of the lower realizations due to falling oil prices. Despite the lower earnings compared to a year ago, Exxon expressed confidence that the structural and cost-saving measures of the past few years have prepared it to weather the uncertain market environment.

“In this uncertain market, our shareholders can be confident in knowing that we’re built for this,” said Darren Woods, chairman and chief executive officer.

“The work we’ve done to transform our company over the past eight years positions us to excel in any environment.”

Chevron, for its part, reported adjusted earnings in line with analyst estimates as the U.S. supermajor’s downstream business recovered from a loss for the prior quarter.

Chevron returned $6.9 billion of cash to shareholders during the first quarter of 2025, including share repurchases of $3.9 billion and dividends of $3.0 billion. However, the second-quarter buybacks were revised down to a range of between $2 billion and $3.5 billion in share repurchases.

Overall, for Big Oil’s fortunes, oil prices weren’t materially lower in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2024. And it was mostly ‘business as usual’ for Big Oil.

With where oil prices are going in the second quarter amid deteriorating outlooks on global economy and oil demand, this past quarter may have been the last ‘business as usual’ quarter for Big Oil for a while.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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