Bitcoin and most altcoins rose on Wednesday as investors cheered the upcoming US-China trade talks. The market also reacted positively to a drop in crude oil prices ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $97,000, its highest level since February, giving it a market cap of over $1.92 trillion. Top altcoins like Stacks (STX), Flare (FLR), JasmyCoin (JASMY), and Dogecoin (DOGE) jumped by over 3%. 

The primary catalyst for the rally is the planned meeting between senior US and Chinese officials in Switzerland this weekend. The talks aim to de-escalate tensions between the two countries following triple-digit tariffs imposed in April.

According to the Wall Street Journal, China is considering additional efforts to stem the flow of chemicals used to produce fentanyl in Mexico. The US, in turn, may consider reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 50%.

However, while the upcoming meeting is a positive step, analysts believe that the final agreement will take time. Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, recently said that the final deal may take up to three years. 

Altcoins like Stacks, Flare, Jasmy, and Dogecoin also rose as the price of crude oil continued falling. Brent and West Texas Intermediate dropped by 0.35% to $61 and $58, respectively.

Hopes of a trade deal and falling oil prices mean that inflation will not rise as fast. It also means that the US may avoid a recession, as some analysts were expecting. Indeed, Polymarket data show that the odds of a recession in the US fell to 51% from 62% in April.

Altcoins like Stacks, Flare, Jasmy, and Dogecoin rallied ahead of Fed

These altcoins also rallied ahead of the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Most economists expect the bank to defy Donald Trump and leave interest rates unchanged at 4.50%. 

At the last meeting and in recent comments, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that rate cuts would only occur if inflation trends toward the 2.0% target. Officials also want to assess the inflationary impact of new tariffs. In a note to Bloomberg, one analyst said:

“Powell just stating the facts on the recent inflation data and repeating over and over that the Fed will react to tariff impacts on inflation and growth as they happen, might be a dovish relief for investors.”

Historically, Bitcoin, altcoins, and equities tend to perform well when the Federal Reserve cuts rates or signals future rate reductions. A clear example was the rally during the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by the 2022 correction as the Fed aggressively hiked rates.