Bank of Japan policy makers in March, before the US Trump Administration erected import levies on Japan imports in early April, had expected the nation's exports to grow in 2025, minutes from the central bank's March 18-19 meeting reveal.

"Regarding the outlook, as overseas economies continued to grow moderately, (Japan's) exports were projected to return to an uptrend, mainly due to a recovery in global demand for IT-related goods," according to the minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting released Thursday.

Nevertheless, at the March 18-19 meeting, the Bank of Japan policymakers hit the pause button on rate hikes, citing general macroeconomic uncertainty.

But at the following central bank meeting, held April 30-May 1, after Trump tariffs had been announced, Bank of Japan officials had grown decidedly gloomy.

Japan's "exports and production are likely to show some weakness, against the background of the slowdown in overseas economies," said the Bank of Japan on May 1 in a public statement, while disclosing its decision to again hold at 0.5% its key policy interest rate.

While in mid-March the Bank of Japan governors had expected the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 1.1% in fiscal 2025 (started April 1), by the May meeting the central bankers had cut their outlook to a modest 0.5% expansion in 2025, due in large part to the new Trump tariffs.

Japan's central bankers added on May 1, "Japan's economic growth is likely to moderate, as trade and other policies in each jurisdiction lead to a slowdown in overseas economies and to a decline in domestic corporate profits."

The next Bank of Japan policy session is slated for June 16-17.

Next week, Japan officials will release the first estimate of the nation's first quarter GDP results, sure to be watched closely by Bank of Japan policymakers.

Some analysts are estimating that Japan's economy had stopped expanding in the first quarter, even before the impact of the Trump tariffs.

"Japan's economy is expected to contract in the first quarter by 0.1% quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted, following a 0.6% gain in the last three months of 2025," said ING Think, an arm of the Dutch investment house, on Friday.

"Weak growth is likely to keep the Bank of Japan--and its rate-hike cycle--on hold for now," advised ING Think.