Nvidia's (NVDA) fiscal Q1 revenue could come in slightly above its $43 billion guidance despite the recent US ban on exports of its H20 chip to China, UBS Securities said Monday in an earnings preview.

UBS models Q1 revenue of about $44 billion, with data center revenue of $39.7 billion, including $36.3 billion from compute and $3.4 billion from networking.

Within compute, UBS expects Blackwell revenue to more than double to $25 billion while Hopper revenue declines about 50% to $11 billion. Most Blackwell shipments in the quarter likely came from the B200 series, using the existing HGX server platform, given delays in NVL72 rack deployments, according to the note.

Gross margin could fall to about 58.5%, versus Nvidia's guidance of 71%, as the company absorbs H20-related charges. UBS sees Q1 earnings per share at $0.76 versus the Street's $0.89.

For fiscal Q2, UBS expects revenue to grow slightly quarter over quarter, despite what it estimates as a $5 to $6 billion hit from the H20 ban. A slower-than-expected ramp in GB200 racks and limited ability to repurpose H20 inventory could weigh on volumes, though UBS still models data center compute revenue rising to $36.7 billion on stronger Blackwell demand.

Growth is expected to reaccelerate in H2 as GB300 racks start shipping in calendar Q3 and Nvidia may be permitted to sell a modified Blackwell-based SKU in China. UBS now sees EPS for the year at $4.22 versus the Street's $4.42, mostly due to lower Q1 margin assumptions.

The firm noted Nvidia is sticking with its Bianca compute board design for GB300 and delaying the shift to the higher-margin Cordelia boards until next year, which could temper gross margin ramp expectations in H2.

UBS lowered its price target to $175 from $180 and maintained a buy rating.

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