AGS WEEK AHEAD: Risk-On Mood Lifts Market Following U.S.-China Trade Deal

Dow Jones
05/12
 

By Joe Hoppe

 

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of May 12-16 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

 

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: The macro mood is positive as an easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China raises risk-on sentiment.

Following talks in Switzerland, U.S. so-called reciprocal tariffs on China have been lowered to 10% from 125%, while China also agreed to lower tariffs on U.S. imports to 10% from 125%. Some other measures remain in place, and the reductions in tariffs will stay for 90 days in order to allow more time for discussions, U.S. officials said.

The risk-on rally has raised wider markets, including agricultural commodities. The news is particularly positive for soybean markets, with recent data pointing to China's soybean imports in April hitting the lowest levels in 10 years as a result of the trade war, Commerzbank analysts said.

However, the positive economic news has seen the U.S. dollar gain against crucial commodity currencies like the Brazilian real, making it more expensive for international purchasers to buy dollar-denominated commodities like wheat and corn, capping some gains.

Meanwhile, U.S. weather has been favorable for restoring subsoil moisture and supporting accelerated planting in some areas, according to analysts at Peak Trading Research. Forecasts indicate dry and warm conditions across the Corn Belt through midweek, followed by scattered showers expected over the weekend in the northern Plains and eastern Corn Belt.

Chicago wheat futures rise 0.8% at $5.26 a bushel on Monday, while corn is up 0.6% to $4.53 a bushel. Soybean prices trade 0.7% higher at $10.60 a bushel.

 

SOFT COMMODITIES: Agricultural softs have had a mixed performance over the last week in thin trading, with cocoa and sugar seeing gains and losses across coffee and cotton.

Most major soft commodities have experienced continued volatility in prices and low volumes after President Trump's tariff announcements in early April sparked market turmoil. Cocoa and coffee prices remain historically elevated on persistent supply concerns, largely reflecting weather-related production worries in key countries.

On Monday, cocoa is down 1.9% to $9,009 a metric ton, while coffee falls 3.4% to $3.75 a pound. Meanwhile, sugar is up 1.1% at $0.18 a pound.

 

Write to Joe Hoppe at joseph.hoppe@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 12, 2025 11:24 ET (15:24 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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