The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1330 ET - The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by five this week to 474, the least since late January and 22 below the year-ago level, oil services company Baker Hughes reports. A number of U.S. oil companies said they are reducing planned capital expenditures because of low oil prices, and the EIA lowered its 2025 production estimate to 13.4 million barrels a day from 13.5 million b/d. "The oil market knows that when WTI is in the $50s, there will be a slowdown, the next question is how fast, how deep," says Neil Crosby of Sparta Commodities. "The market will trade once it sees how quickly this is slowing or even declining, and that will take some weeks or months," he adds. Rigs directed at natural gas are unchanged this week at 101. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0952 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher on largely technical moves with weather-related demand steady as air conditioning use rises and late-season heating demand fades. "While momentum is bullish and traders appear eager for a reason to press gas pricing higher--and may be briefly successful--the near-to-medium term fundamental picture remains soft," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Nymex natural gas is up 5.2% at $3.778/mmBtu, on track for a second straight weekly gain. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0944 ET - Oil futures are higher and heading for gains in a week that started with a slump on planned OPEC+ output increases and is ending with optimism about U.S. trade talks. "All eyes will be on this weekend's trade negotiations with China which should give more direction on global trade," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Indonesian plans to buy more U.S. petroleum products to get a trade deal, and added U.S. sanctions against buyers of Iranian oil are supportive of crude, but the conflict between India and Pakistan bears watching, he adds. "While currently it seems contained, an escalation could temporarily hurt oil demand from India." WTI is up 1% at $60.51 a barrel and Brent is up 0.9% at $63.38 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0734 ET - OPEC+'s more aggressive policy shift is expected to weigh on prices through this year and next, according to Capital Economics. "The fact that OPEC+ has ditched its 18-month plan and is announcing output quotas on a month-by-month basis adds even more uncertainty to the oil market outlook and makes a wide range of outcomes plausible," says economist Hamad Hussain. "In any case, it was only a matter of time before OPEC+ switched its focus to regaining market share - and we suspect that this shift will be long-lasting." Capital Economics now forecasts Brent crude at $60 a barrel by the end of 2025 and $50 a barrel by the end of 2026. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0711 ET - Enel delivered a good start to the year and appears to be on track to deliver full-year earnings at the upper end of its guidance, BofA analysts write. The Rome-based energy company could announce a 1 billion euro share buyback quite soon, they add. Enel will prioritize spending this year on organic growth in grids, with a particular focus on Italy, as well as acquiring cheap brownfield renewable assets in the U.S., the analysts write. Shares trade up 2% at 7.74 euros.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0606 ET - Crude prices extend gains in midday trade, supported by optimism surrounding global trade talks and fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil exports. Brent rises 1.6% to $63.83 a barrel, while WTI is up 1.7% to $60.92 a barrel. The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned a third Chinese independent refinery over purchases of Iranian oil, signaling continued pressure on Tehran ahead of an expected fourth round of nuclear talks. The move contributed to a rise in crude prices at a time when investor sentiment has already improved ahead of U.S.-China talks. However, concerns over the demand outlook persist. Kazakhstan reportedly said it has no plans to cut oil output in May, increasing the chances of another accelerated production hike from the OPEC+ group in July. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0557 ET - Orsted shares trade at a premium to peers, and with balance sheet concerns and limited comfort on the U.S. outlook, the stock risks falling, Citi's Jenny Ping and Marc Ip Tat Kuen write. "We continue to be concerned about Orsted's balance sheet, with [the] company selling operating cashflows to fund U.S. projects and canceling value-creating projects such as Hornsea 4." Tariffs and the U.S. administration's recent cease-to-develop order on the Empire Wind project increase uncertainty. This uncertainty means a higher risk premium, while the removal of Hornsea 4 and potential tariff-related capex all lead to downside. Citi downgrades Orsted to sell from neutral and lowers its target price to 211 Danish kroner from 300 kroner. Shares rise 0.8% to 252.50 kroner. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0517 ET - Maersk maintained its earnings guidance, but the upper-end of the range looks optimistic in the current demand backdrop, JPMorgan analysts write. Maersk delivered a solid first quarter result which came in ahead of expectations, driven by better ocean freight rates as volumes were flat. Management revised downwards its market volume forecast, noting that trade uncertainty is paralysing for a lot of customers. The bank models a quarter-on-quarter deterioration in EBIT in the coming quarters, with material losses into 2026 if Red Sea disruption ends, which could drive 13% capacity growth and a 45% decline in spot rates next year. It reiterates its underweight rating and lowers its price target to 7,900 Danish kroner from 7,850 kroner. Shares trade flat at 11,575 kroner. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0333 ET - Oil prices are on track for a weekly gain of more than 3%, buoyed by renewed optimism surrounding global trade negotiations. In early trade, Brent crude and WTI both rise 0.9% to $63.38 and $60.44 a barrel, respectively. The U.S. announced a trade deal with the U.K.--the first with a major trading partner since President Donald Trump imposed blanket tariffs--and is scheduled to meet with China over the weekend. "Easing trade tensions helped lift crude oil prices," analysts at ANZ Research say. "The U.K. deal raises investor confidence that agreements with other countries can be reached despite more complicated issues." Meanwhile, China's exports growth showed unexpected resilience in April month, but the country's oil imports slipped from March levels. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0326 ET - EDP made a strong start to 2025, with its first-quarter results exceeding expectations thanks a solid performance in Portugal and Spain, RBC Capital Markets' Fernando Garcia and Charlotte Mettyear say in a research note. The Portuguese utility reported a recurring Ebitda of 1.43 billion euros that topped both consensus expectations of 1.35 billion euros and RBC's estimate of 1.36 billion euros, the analysts say. The company achieved this result despite the fact that it recorded no gains from asset sales last quarter against a gain of 134 million in last year's comparable period, RBC says. The strong results benefited from high hydropower volumes that are likely to continue at least in the second quarter given that Iberian reservoirs are 20% above average as of May, the analysts say. Shares rise 4.7%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 09, 2025 13:30 ET (17:30 GMT)

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