Westpac added one more rate cut to its forecast for 2025 as risks related to global uncertainties are likely to prevail beyond the first half, the bank said in Friday report.
"In practice, we don't think the [Reserve Bank of New Zealand] will be able to see its way through the fog of war by July or even August," wrote Kelly Eckhold, Westpac's chief economist.
"Hence, it's likely they will continue to cut the [official cash rate] beyond the 3.25% trough in the OCR we previously forecast."
Westpac now expects the RBNZ to deliver another 25-basis-point cut in July, bringing the OCR to 3%. Westpac considers this level "stimulatory" given its view that a neutral OCR is equivalent to 3.75%.
The bank believes trade uncertainty and the ensuing downside risks to economic growth will remain "until at least August and possibly longer."
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