EMERGING MARKETS-FX tumbles, stocks higher on commodity boost after US-China tariff relief

Reuters
2025/05/13
EMERGING MARKETS-FX tumbles, stocks higher on commodity boost after US-China tariff relief

Brazil says China to invest $4.78 billion as Lula visits Beijing

Economists say Brazil's monetary tightening cycle is over

Chile central bank seen holding rate at 5% next meeting, poll shows

Indian, Pakistani assets soar after ceasefire

Updates to mid-session trading

By Nikhil Sharma, Johann M Cherian and Purvi Agarwal

May 12 (Reuters) - Most Latin American currencies slid against a stronger dollar on Monday, after the United States and China reached a deal to temporarily trim their steep tariffs on each other, while equities gained on surging commodity prices.

Following weekend talks in Geneva, the U.S. agreed to cut extra tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, while China would cut duties on U.S. imports to 10% from 125%. The new measures are effective for 90 days.

The deal comes as a relief for global investors who have been on the edge ever since U.S. President Donald Trump announced his sweeping levies on key trading partners, creating an environment of high volatility and uncertainty.

The dollar index =USD hit its highest since April 10, weighing on EM currencies. MSCI's index of Latin American currencies .MILA00000CUS was down 0.6%, set for its first loss in five sessions.

"The U.S. is re-engaging with the world now through a kinder, gentler economic diplomacy than it did before ... and yet, its view as a 'full faith and credit' counter-party won't return soon," said Thierry Wizman, global FX & rates strategist at Macquarie.

"It will limit the dollar's gains, before it weakens again."

Chile's peso CLP= dipped 1.2%, the most among peers. A survey showed analysts expect the central bank to leave benchmark interest rates unchanged in June.

Mexico's peso MXN= depreciated 0.7% after data showed industrial output fell 0.9% in March from February, despite the government's expectations for this year.

The country's central bank is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate later this week.

Brazil's real BRL= weakened 0.5%. Focus was on President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's state visit to Beijing, with Brazil announcing around 27 billion reais ($4.78 billion) of Chinese investment into the country.

Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said he expects interest rates to fall sharply, pointing to a stronger currency, and also echoing a survey of economists.

The trade deal between China and the U.S. boosted prices of base metals, uplifting currencies in commodity exporter-heavy economies.

Colombia's peso COP= was the only one higher against the dollar, as oil prices settled at two-week highs. O/R

Top energy companies in the region including Brazil's Petrobras PETR4.SA jumped 3.3%. Argentina's YPF YPFDm.BA gained 7.2% and Colombia's Ecopetrol ECO.CN climbed 1.2%.

Stock indexes in Argentina .MERV and Colombia .COLCAP were up 4.5% and 0.1% respectively, while Brazil's Bovespa index .BVSP was up 0.2%.

Miners including Brazil's Vale VALE3.SA gained 2.7%, Mexico's Grupo Mexico SAB de CV GMEXICOB.MX advanced 2.7% and U.S.-listed shares of SQM SQM.N rose 3.6%, tracking higher industrial metal prices. MET/L

The main stock index in Chile .SPIPSA, the world's biggest copper producer, was up 1%. Mexican stocks .MXX were up 0.3%.

"Sentiment with this new announcement is improving and that also implies that Latam markets will be in a better shape or will be under less stress with these announcements of a pause of tariffs towards China," said Andres Abadia, chief Latam economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Stocks in the region have outperformed the broader MSCI EM stocks index .MSCIEF so far this year, as Latin American economies are among the countries with the smallest of Washington's duties, and worries of a tariff-driven recession drove them to bargain-hunt outside the U.S.

China is also expected to host officials from other Latin American and Caribbean economies, including Colombia and Chile.

Elsewhere, India's benchmarks .NSEI and .BSESN registered their biggest one-day rise in more than four years, while Pakistani dollar bonds advanced and the local bourse .KSE saw its steepest one-day jump since 1998 after the two nuclear powers agreed to a ceasefire over the weekend.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies around 1920 GMT

Latin American market prices from Reuters

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1160.51

1.94

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2222.41

-0.17

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

136786.05

0.2

Mexico IPC .MXX

56718.87

0.3

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

8311.9

0.96

Argentina Merval .MERV

2209166.76

4.483

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1646.29

0.05

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.6825

-0.5

Mexico peso MXN=

19.5696

-0.7

Chile peso CLP=

946.03

-1.15

Colombia peso COP=

4219.5

0.05

Peru sol PEN=

3.658

-0.16

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1129

0.442869796

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1150

2.173913043

(Reporting by Nikhil Sharma, Johann M Cherian and Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Jan Harvey and Alan Barona)

((Nikhil.Sharma@thomsonreuters.com))

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