0958 GMT - Thailand's 1Q GDP print was better than HSBC economists had expected, but that could be "the calm before the storm." Details in the data suggest a demand slowdown ahead, HSBC's Aris Dacanay says, with consumption tepid and inventory levels declining. Tourist arrivals--a key source of income--have yet to stabilize, while exports will likely weaken once importers stock up before U.S. reciprocal tariffs take effect, he adds. HSBC's baseline is for the Bank of Thailand to deliver a rate cut in June, though the 1Q print raises the risk of a hold. High household debt and private credit levels limit room to ease policy rates, Dacanay adds. U.S. trade talks will also shape the policy path to a large extent. BOT sees 2025 GDP growth at 2.0% in a low-tariff scenario, and 1.3% in a high-tariff one. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 19, 2025 05:58 ET (09:58 GMT)
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