MW What to make of the stock market's recovery

By Philip van Doorn

Also: Putting a number on how much in Social Security might be garnished to repay student loans; coverage of the bond market; and whether or not gold could rise even further

The movement of the broad U.S. stock market this year has provided a reminder to investors on the importance of not overreacting to day-to-day events. And the recent recovery has offered a breather for investors who might want to make some adjustments to their portfolios.

This chart shows how the S&P 500 SPX has performed in 2025 through Thursday, with dividends reinvested:

Through April 8, the S&P 500 was down 15% for 2025, with most of the decline following President Trump's tariff announcements on April 2. Depending on how your investment portfolio was allocated, you might have felt overly exposed at the bottom - and the concentration of the S&P 500 might have left you feeling even more uncomfortable about the risk.

The index is weighted by market capitalization, which means that if you hold shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, 19.6% of that money is allocated to three stocks: Microsoft Corp. $(MSFT)$, Nvidia Corp. $(NVDA)$ and Apple Inc. $(AAPL)$ Even though SPY holds all 500 stocks in the index, its top 10 holdings make up 35.7% of the fund's portfolio.

So what should you make of this rally, as investors have shown enthusiasm for Trump's new trade deals and recent decisions to ease up on some of the tariffs?

Isabel Wang spoke with technical analysts about this year's trading pattern for the S&P 500 and tied that into previous periods of decline and recovery going back to 1929. Here is what might signal the broad market's next move.

Joseph Adinolfi also considered the historical context of this year's decline and recovery. You might be fascinated to see how often similar stock-market moves have taken place.

Mark Hulbert explained how bear-market rallies work.

And Nick Kalivas, Invesco's head of factor and core strategy for exchange-traded funds, described an indexing approach that sifts the S&P 500 for quality - and has outperformed the full index this year and over three- and five-year periods.

What can happen if your student-loan payments are past due and you're collecting Social Security

The Trump administration has restarted collections efforts for defaulted student loans, which were halted during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Education Department is also planning to increase how much benefits income will be garnished for affected borrowers who are on Social Security. Jillian Berman spelled out how much more these borrowers might wind up paying monthly than they would have under the Biden administration's plan.

Gold's big move

This chart shows price movement of continuous front-month contracts for gold (GC00) on the New York Mercantile Exchange for one year through Thursday:

In the Commodities Corner column, Myra P. Saefong explained how gold's complicated relationship with the U.S. dollar DXY has been evolving and how government policies could affect gold prices from here.

More from Commodities Corner: Here's how a Trump nuclear deal with Iran could impact global oil supplies

Bond-market developments

The stock market's recovery could give you a chance to reallocate some of your portfolio to bonds. Here is a sampling of related coverage:

-- Bond funds back in demand as fading recession fears spark rally in riskier debt

-- These $5,000 bonds can help you fix a stock-heavy portfolio

-- These bond funds shield you from interest-rate shocks - but here's the catch

-- Barclays revises forecast for closely watched junk-bond measure after trade war cools

Good and bad news for Coinbase

Late on Monday, S&P Dow Jones Indices said that Coinbase Global Inc. $(COIN)$ would be added to the S&P 500. That helped to send shares of the provider of cryptocurrency account and trading services up 24% on Tuesday. Being added to the large-cap benchmark U.S. stock index means funds that track the S&P 500 will be holding its shares.

But Coinbase's shares fell 7% on Thursday, after the company said it would incur expenses of up to $400 million after its customer data was hacked in a low-tech manner.

Technology news

Here is some of this week's coverage from the MarketWatch technology team:

-- Trump isn't happy with how Apple plans to escape China tariffs

-- Alphabet's stock is now almost as cheap as eBay's by this metric - but should you buy it?

-- Nvidia, AMD extend stock gains. Why the AI trade is roaring back.

-- Super Micro's stock keeps surging. Here's what might come next.

Advice from the Moneyist - is it time to retire?

Quentin Fottrell - the Moneyist - tackled another round of difficult questions from readers this week, including one from a 57-year-old man who says he is ready to retire. His wife does not agree.

More from the Moneyist

-- I have $50,000 in credit-card debt after my divorce, but received $30,000 after a car wreck. Do I buy a used Lexus?

-- 'Be vigilant with your finances': My IRA had an unknown beneficiary designation. How could this happen?

-- 'We're not wealthy': My niece is marrying out of state and she has a honeymoon fund. Is that cheeky?

How to reduce IRA tax exposure when you are 90 years old

This week in the Fix My Portfolio column, Beth Pinsker answered questions from 90-year-old who easily covers monthly expenses with monthly Social Security and pension income, but is wondering what moves can be made to lower the tax burden on required minimum distributions from IRA accounts.

More retirement-related advice:

-- I hear horror stories about people waiting to get their first Social Security check. Should I rush my application?

-- My accountant said I'll have to pay back Social Security I already received if I retire mid-year. Is that true?

Will the 'big, beautiful' budget bill lower your federal income taxes?

Andrew Keshner looked into what President Trump has called the "big, beautiful bill," which is being negotiated by Republicans in Congress. Here is how likely you might be to benefit from tax breaks.

Where Walmart goes, others will follow

James Rogers and Charles Passy covered what could only be called a good set of quarterly results for Walmart Inc. $(WMT)$ They also looked ahead at potential price increases for the retail giant's customers.

Related coverage:

-- The U.S.-China trade thaw is helping Target's stock. Some analysts still see problems with no obvious solutions.

-- Imported-goods costs showing signs of tariff-related price pressures

-- Powell signals return toward inflation-first strategy

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-Philip van Doorn

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May 16, 2025 13:15 ET (17:15 GMT)

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