Intel's (INTC -1.36%) stock closed at its record high of $74.88 near the peak of the dot-com bubble on Aug. 3, 2000, which boosted its market cap to $298.4 billion. As the world's top producer of x86 CPUs for PCs and servers, the company seemed like a great long-term investment.
Today, however, Intel trades at about $21 with a market cap of $94.5 billion. The company's stock slumped as its net income fell for the past six consecutive years, it paused buybacks over the past four years, and suspended its dividend at the end of 2024. It was even replaced by Nvidia in the Dow last November.
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Intel disappointed its long-term investors by falling behind TSMC in the "process race" to manufacture smaller and denser chips, ceding the PC CPU market to AMD and broadly missing the mobile and AI markets. It also didn't inspire much confidence by going through four CEOs in less than seven years.
From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect Intel's revenue to only rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2%. They expect it to turn profitable again by the final year -- assuming its latest turnaround plans pay off -- but it still isn't a bargain at 23 times its 2027 earnings.
Instead of waiting to see if Intel can fix its struggling business, investors should check out two other tech companies that could grow faster and eclipse Intel's market cap within the next two years: Dell Technologies (DELL -0.06%) and Workday (WDAY 0.04%).
Dell is one of the world's largest producers of PCs, servers, and data-storage products. In fiscal 2025 (which ended in February), the company generated 51% of its revenue from its client solutions group, which sells PCs and PC peripherals, and another 46% from its infrastructure solutions group, which sells servers and data storage products. The client segment is growing at a much slower rate than the infrastructure segment, which is profiting from the rapid expansion of the artificial intelligence (AI) market.
Dell expects rising sales of its dedicated AI servers to offset the slower growth of its legacy PC, data storage, and non-AI server businesses for the foreseeable future. It expects to generate at least $15 billion in revenue, or 15% of its projected sales in fiscal 2026, from its AI servers.
That could also make it an attractive alternative to Super Micro Computer, Dell's smaller rival in the server space, which carved out its own niche with its liquid-cooled AI servers.
Dell has a market cap of $79.7 billion. However, from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, analysts expect its revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a CAGR of 6% and 15%, respectively. Those are impressive growth rates for a stock that trades at 15 times this year's earnings.
Assuming Dell matches analysts' estimates and maintains the same forward multiple, its stock could rise nearly 30%, to $147 a share, over the next two years and drive its market cap to about $102 billion. If Intel stagnates and struggles during that time, it could be less valuable than Dell by 2027.
Workday was originally a cloud-based finance and human resources (HR) services provider but subsequently expanded by adding more human capital management (HCM) tools to its platform. From fiscal 2015 to fiscal 2025 (which ended in January), its revenue grew at a CAGR of 27%. It's also stayed profitable over the past two fiscal years as it pruned its workforce and cut costs.
Today, Workday serves more than 11,000 customers worldwide, including 60% of the Fortune 500. Its business is well-insulated from the macro headwinds because companies can use its services to both expand efficiently during economic expansions and trim their expenses during recessions. Workday is also streamlining its HCM services with its new generative AI tools.
From fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, analysts expect the company's revenue and EPS to grow at a CAGR of 13% and 41%, respectively. Its stock isn't cheap at 93 times this year's earnings, but its rapid earnings growth could justify that higher valuation.
Assuming Workday matches analyst expectations and maintains the same multiple, its stock price could surge 85% to $506 per share over the next two years and drive its market cap from $73 billion to $135 billion. If Workday continues to fire on all cylinders and Intel's growth engines stall, the former could generate bigger gains to become the more valuable tech stock by the first half of 2027.
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