MW Trump's $1.6 trillion spin: What the numbers really say about GOP tax bill

By Chris Matthews

The president's press secretary said tax bill 'does not add to the deficit'

President Donald Trump's press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, made a sweeping claim Monday, arguing that the president's tax bill won't add to the nation's already significant budget deficit.

At a briefing Monday, she said the bill "does not add to the deficit" and includes the largest savings in U.S. history. "In fact ... this bill will save $1.6 trillion," Leavitt added.

What the numbers really say

The $1.6 trillion figure is accurate, but only as a partial accounting of the bill's spending cuts. It ignores the much larger tax cuts - the dominant factor in the bill's bottom line.

According to an analysis released Monday by the Penn Wharton Budget Model, the House reconciliation bill would actually increase primary deficits by $3.2 trillion over the next decade, and that's before accounting for costs associated with interest on the debt.

That's even after including the $1.6 trillion in spending cuts that Leavitt referenced.

The White House didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

The single biggest driver of deficits is the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, new deductions for overtime pay and auto-loan interest, and a bump in the cap for state- and local-tax deductions.

The bill also includes cuts to programs like Medicaid and food stamps, which help offset the costs, but only partially. The net effect is that the legislation would, on average, hurt low-income Americans and help those at the higher end of the income spectrum.

According to the Penn-Wharton model, the average household in the bottom 20% of the income distribution would lose more than $1,000 per year, while the top 10% would receive about two-thirds of the bill's total benefits.

Trump visited Capitol Hill Tuesday morning to discuss the negotiations over the tax bill, as Republicans seek compromises on key issues, including the magnitude of Medicaid cuts and the state-and-local tax deduction.

See also: Trump sours on lifting SALT cap, calling it a gift to Democratic governors

-Chris Matthews

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May 20, 2025 12:10 ET (16:10 GMT)

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