Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

CHOPPY WATERS NOW, BUT EUROPE BULL CASE BUILDING - MS

Morgan Stanley is out with a 68-page note detailing what it thinks lies ahead for the European equity market, which has raced ahead of Wall Street this year, despite rising U.S. tariffs.

The bank sees parallels between uncertainties created by the temporary 150% spike in oil prices at the outset of the Gulf War and today's heightened trade uncertainty.

These similarities point to "choppy, sideways trading from here, a sustained shift into resilient pockets of the market". But further down the road a bull case for Europe is being built.

"Tactically, we still expect EU equities to give back further YTD outperformance vs the US," they say.

Structurally, however, MS sees five pillars behind the beginning of a European bull case. Here they are:

• High political will around the Savings & Investment Union

• Signs of AI adoption

• Execution on Germany's fiscal expansion with project awards likely from the fall

• Structurally rising defence spending which should ultimately include rising tech investment

• Resilient M&A activity supported by steadily easing competition rules and healthy balance sheets

Against this backdrop, top picks in a screen combining its models together are Siemens Energy ENR1n.DE, Rheinmetall RHMG.DE, SAP SAPG.DE, Experian EXPN.L, Deutsche Telekom DTEGn.DE, Getlink GETP.PA, Santander SAN.MC, Euronext ENX.PA and ASR ASRNL.AS.

(Danilo Masoni)

*****

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

NO BIG SHIFT OUT OF US TREASURIES BY MID-APRIL - BOFA CLICK HERE

DEFENSIVES UP, BANKS STEADY, UK RETAILERS SLIDE CLICK HERE

BEFORE THE BELL: EUROPEAN FUTURES DOWN, MS UPGRADES BANKS CLICK HERE

NERVOUS INVESTORS PUT DOLLAR UNDER PRESSURE CLICK HERE