By David Bull

May 28 - (The Insurer) - The non-admitted market can grow from its current 25% share of the U.S P&C industry towards 40%, but wholesalers and E&S carriers will need to invest in AI and digital trading to keep up with business flowing into the channel, according to Ryan Specialty CEO Tim Turner.

Speaking as the opening keynote at the E&S Insurer Conference 2025 in New York on Wednesday morning, the executive said that adding specialty admitted business to AM Best’s current estimate of $120 billion of non-admitted P&C premium creates a bigger opportunity for wholesalers and E&S carriers.

“I believe the total addressable market that this group has an opportunity to capture market share is close to $200 billion in premium,” he told an audience of around 400 delegates.

Turner highlighted structural changes that will continue driving business from admitted carriers into the non-admitted sector via wholesale distribution, including climate change, creating volatility for property underwriters and the impact of social inflation on casualty.

“I would say that it’s highly likely that the 25-26% non-admitted market (share of the overall P&C industry) in North America will go to 30%. I’ll even go out on a limb and say I believe it will probably go to 35% and maybe 40% of the market before things stabilize.

“Things like tort reform… (and) hopefully global warming settles down for all of us. But it’s not likely in the near future. It’s more likely that this volume continues to pour into our channel,” he said.

Turner said that despite rate deceleration and signs of softening in property, limit management has been disciplined, and there is no sign of admitted companies taking E&S property back into the admitted market.

And he suggested there are tens of billions of dollars in segments like workers’ compensation and auto in the addressable market for the E&S sector, as he also highlighted primary transportation as “pouring in” through the wholesale channel.

He added that business that shows up as “loss leaders” in the reinsurance world is “where the action is” and where wholesale and E&S market services are in the highest demand, as he pointed to the growing significance of delegated underwriting authority to provide solutions for these risks.

“That’s where delegated underwriting authority is needed, probably as much as any segment in the business today, and it’s where talent and skill sets are rewarded the most,” he continued.

AI AND DIGITAL TRADING KEY TO KEEPING PACE WITH SUBMISSIONS

The wholesale channel has continued to see record submissions flowing in from retail broker clients.

And Turner said that it is key that wholesalers and E&S carriers invest in AI and digital trading – “accelerants” that are coming into the business to make it faster.

“The faster we can go, the more business we’re going to write. There will be some of us that can invest heavily in AI. I hope everyone does that. I hope that we’re heavy in digital as an industry, in small commercial in particular, (and) binding authority as that consolidation of the use of delegated underwriting authority intermediaries is imminent.

“It's imminent because the retailer has the same problem, the same cost of inefficiency and an even more difficult time with the deliverable itself. So the end product coming out of small commercial is very inefficient,” he observed.

He noted that top 100 or tier two brokers consolidating their use of delegated underwriting authority intermediaries – including binding business as well as program administrators, MGAs and MGUs – is creating opportunities for wholesalers that until recently they were not able to fully capture.

“But today is the day. Today, I believe there are two or three of us that have that bandwidth. We have the product, we have the teams, we have the ability to take a big surge and a migration and transition of that business. That's inevitable. If we don't do it as an industry there are companies on the outside, on the perimeter of our industry, that want to disintermediate us,” said Turner.

“So it's highly motivational for us to build these solutions that use AI and digital platforms to capture the business that's really our future together,” the executive concluded.